## Module 6: Simulation Part 1

Review:

- Module 5

Presentation:

- Video Lecture
- Probability
- Topic worthy of its own course

- Simulation
- Random phenomenon
- Individual outcomes are uncertain
- Regular distribution of outcomes in large number of trials

- Random number generation and stochastic processes

- Random phenomenon
- Coin Toss Simulation
- Demonstrate Coin Toss Simulation in Sheets

- Dice Roll Simulation
- Demonstrate Simulation of rolling a pair dice in Sheets
- Lucky 7 game
- Roll a 7, win bet
- Roll anything else (other than a 7), lose bet

Assignment:

**Replicate the Coin Toss simulation**- 200 coin tosses (instead of 32)
- reproduce the graph (showing 200 tosses)

**Replicate the “Lucky 7” simulation**- 100 rolls (instead of 32)
- Experiment with different Payoff Odds values (in cell K2)
- What payoff odds would you suggest the Casino owner use to maximize revenue?

**Simulate Chuck-a-luck where the player rolls 3 dice**- Here are the rules
- Apply the following simplifying assumptions
- If sum of 3 dice >10, player wins the “Big” (1 to 1 odds)
- If the roll is three of a kind, player wins “Any Triple” (30 to 1 odds)
- All other outcomes, player loses the bet

- Will the “House” win money over time with these rules? Explain.