Lesson 18: Python Basics, Lists, Functions and Packages

Review:

• Simulation in Python
• DataCamp signup

Presentation:

• Introduction to Python Course in DataCamp
  • Python Basics
    • The Python Interface
    • Python as a Calculator
    • Variable Assignment
    • Calculations with variables
    • Other variable types
  • Python Lists
    • Create a list
    • List of lists
  • Python Functions and Packages
    • Familiar functions
    • List Methods
    • Import package
  • NumPy
    • Your First NumPy Array
    • Your First 2D NumPy Array
    • Average versus median
    • Explore baseball data

Assignment:

• Check your CSU-P email and verify/confirm enrollment in my DataCamp Class
• Complete the Introduction to Python course by Wed

Lesson 17: Simulation of Normally Distributed Data in Python

Review:

• Coin Flip simulation
• Dice simulation efforts

Presentation:

• Monte Carlo Simulation in Python
  • Discrete
    • Dice Simulation
  • Continuous
    • Normal Distribution Simulation
    • Stock Market Simulation

Activity:

• Use the parameters in Sheets “Annual” stock market simulation
• Write a program to simulate stock market returns for 1 40-year time frame.
• Edit the program to simulate stock market returns for 100 40-year time frames.
• Edit the program to simulate stock market returns for 10,000 40-year time frames.
• Save a screen capture to your portfolio

Assignment:

• Follow this link to join my DataCamp classroom
• Complete Intro to Python, Chapter 1, Python Basics
• Due before class on Monday

Lesson 16: Monte Carlo Simulation using Python vs Sheets

Review:

• Portfolios
• Grade Check
• Why you should love statistics (Ted Talk, 12 min)

Presentation:

• Coin Flip Simulation
  • Open your coin flip simulation in sheets
  • Think about what would be required to run the simulation 10,000 times (instead of 100)
• Python Simulation of Coin Toss in 3 steps
  • Step 1
  • Step 2
  • Step 3

Activity:

• Write a python program to simulate a coin toss 10,000 times
• Run the program successfully and save a screen capture showing the code, output and your name
• Use the output to generate a line graph and save the graphic
• Add to your portfolio

Assignment:

• How would you modify the coin toss simulation program to simulate rolling two dice?
• Hint: random.randint(1,6)

Lesson 15: Monte Carlo Simulation

Review:

• Random Variables
• Stock Market Simulation
• Portfolio 2 due today

Presentation:

• Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Lecture by John Guttag (MIT OpenCourseWare)

Activity:

• Use your Stock Market Simulation
• Generate a 95% Confidence Interval to estimate your retirement savings at age 65.
• For example, you might estimate your ending balance will be $200,000 +/- $50,000 with 95% confidence
• Write your confidence interval on your Portfolio (by hand is fine).
• If done correctly, I will award up to 6 points of extra credit to your Portfolio score (out of 100).
• [Note: you must attend class to take advantage of this opportunity]

Assignment:

• Enjoy your Spring Break!

Lesson 14: Random Variables and Stock Market Simulation

Review:

• Probability Models
• Dice Simulation
• Portfolio due Wed
  • Lessons 7-10,12-14 (7 lessons total, including today)
  • Min 2 pages, Max 4 pages

Presentation:

• Random Variables
  • Discrete Random Variables
    • Probability distribution table
    • Dice Simulation

    • 

  • Continuous Random Variables
    • Area under a density curve (e.g., Normal Curve)
    • Stock Market Simulation
      • How to simulate a normal distribution in Sheets
      • Using Annual Stock Market Return data

Assignment:

• Watch Video from Unit 20 – Random Variables
• Create a Stock Market Simulation in Sheets using the Monthly return data
  1. Calculate the number of months until your 65th birthday
  2. Generate a simulation with the number of months calculated in step 1.
  3. Use $10,000 as your starting balance
  4. Run a test simulation (or a few) to be sure the numbers are making sense
  5. When ready, run the simulation 30 times and save the ending balance from each simulation (you’ll have 30 separate ending balances).
  6. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of your n=30 ending balances
  7. Make a histogram of your ending balances
  8. Create a portfolio slide summarizing your results