Lesson 13: Intro to Probability and Random Numbers for Monte Carlo Simulation
April 2, 2024
Review:
- Exam 2
- Median = 94.0
- Average = 83.5
Presentation:
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Use a random number generator
- Approximate the probability distribution
- Run multiple iterations (like, thousands) and observe distribution of outcomes
- Probability
- Topic worthy of its own course
- Discrete vs Continuous
- Probability distribution for rolling a pair of dice
- Probability distribution for height
- Random Numbers
- Demonstrate RANDBETWEEN() in Sheets
- Demonstrate RAND() in Sheets
- Simulation
- Individual outcomes are uncertain
- Distribution of outcomes over many iterations are predictable.
- Demonstrate Coin Toss Simulation in Sheets
- Dice Simulation
- More RANDBETWEEN()
- Rolling 2 dice
- RANDBETWEEN(1,12) ≠ sum of two dice
- Histogram comparison
- Probability distribution
- Demonstrate Dice simulation in Sheets
Activity/Assignment:
- Create your own Dice Simulation
- Lucky 7 game
- Roll a 7, you win!
- Roll anything else (other than a 7), you lose.
