## Lesson 18: Retirement Portfolio Simulation Presentations

Review:

- Schedule
- Fri 26 Apr
- Election Simulation project work session

- Wed 1 May
- No class – Labor Day

- Fri 3 May
- Review for Final Exam
- Election Simulation Presentations

- Mon 6 May
- Final Exam

- Fri 26 Apr

Presentation:

- Student Retirement Portfolio Presentations

Assignment:

- Final Project
- This will be worth 40% of the Final Exam score
- Build upon your Election Model, using the same State you were assigned
- Use your predicted Trump % + the actual 2016 and 2020 Trump %
- The average of the 3 values should be your estimated 2024 Trump %
- Calculate the standard deviation (using your predicted value to increase variance)

- Create a Monte Carlo Simulation to generate a probabilistic election forecast
- Simulate the 2024 Trump % vote
- Simulate a 3rd party % using a similar approach (i.e., 2016+2020 average)
- Generate Biden % = 100% – (Trump % + 3rd Party %)
- Simulation count, n=1000
- Your simulation results should allow you to say that “Trump has a XX% chance to win”

- Prepare a Spreadsheet file
- You’ll use a Google Sheets file to document and explain your simulation
- Make it easy to understand and navigate

- Demonstrate your simulation
- Present your simulation in class on Fri 3 May