## Lesson 17: Simulating Margin of Error for Election Forecasting

Review:

- Retirement Portfolio Simulation

Presentation:

Assignment:

- Complete your Retirement Portfolio Simulation for Wed
- Begin working on your Election Simulation

Author: Justin

- 7 hours ago
- s24-geo411
- Justin

Review:

- Retirement Portfolio Simulation

Presentation:

Assignment:

- Complete your Retirement Portfolio Simulation for Wed
- Begin working on your Election Simulation

- 2 days ago
- s24-geo411
- Justin

Review:

- Stock market simulation
- Combined with bonds

Project Assignment:

- Build upon your Stock + Bond Market Simulation
- Simulation Requirements
- 40-year time horizon
- Simulation count, n=100
- Ability to set/modify simulation parameters by changing cell values (not by editing formula)
- initial balance
- annual contribution
- stock/bond % allocation
- financial target, e.g., $1,000,000

- Functional start button to launch automation of simulation
- Display at end of simulation
- probability (%) of reaching financial target
- distribution of end balances on a histogram
- calculation of Max, Min, Mean, Median and Standard Deviation of end balances

- Run 4 simulation scenarios
- Scenario 1
- Beginning balance = 10,000
- Annual contribution = 1,000
- Stock/Bond allocation = 60%/40%
- Target = $1,000,000

- Scenario 2
- Beginning balance = 10,000
- Annual contribution = 1,000
- Stock/Bond allocation = 80%/20%
- Target = $1,000,000

- Scenario 3
- Beginning balance = 3,000
- Annual contribution = 3,000
- Stock/Bond allocation = 60%/40%
- Target = $2,000,000

- Scenario 4
- Beginning balance = 3,000
- Annual contribution = 3,000
- Stock/Bond allocation = 80%/20%
- Target = $2,000,000

- For each scenario, answer the following questions:
- What is the Max, Min, Mean, Median and Standard Deviation of end balances
- What is the probability of reaching the target?

- Scenario 1
- Prepare a Spreadsheet file
- You’ll use a Google Sheets file to document and explain your simulation
- Make it easy to understand and navigate
- Be ready to demonstrate to me privately in class

- Optional Extra Credit Opportunity
- Present your Simulation spreadsheet to the entire class
- ~3 minute presentation
- During class on Wed 24 Apr
- Earn up to +2% bonus, applied to overall grade

- 3 days ago
- s24-geo101
- Justin

Review:

- Fluvial geomorphology
- Landform presentations
- Submit your 1-page presentation (everyone)
- Due at the beginning of class on Thu 18 Apr
- Applies to Participation grade

- Option to present during class (voluntary)
- Also Thu 18 Apr
- First-come, first-served as time permits
- Earn up to +1% bonus, applies to overall grade

- Submit your 1-page presentation (everyone)
- Course Evaluations

Presentation:

- Aeolian Landforms
- Coastal
- Erosional Coastal Landforms
- Coastal Landforms Made by Erosion (Mr. Gedge’s Geography Channel, 05:05)
- Depositional Coastal Landforms
- Coastal Landforms Made by Deposition (Mr. Gedge’s Geography Channel, 07:44)
- Coastlines of Submergence
- Coral Reefs
- Coastal Engineering

- Inland
- Sand Dunes
- Loess

- Coastal
- Chapter 16 Slides

Activity/Assignment:

- Prepare your 1-page Landform presentation

- 1 week ago
- s24-geo411
- Justin

Review:

- Discrete Simulation
- Automation in Sheets

Presentation:

- Random Variables
- Discrete Random Variables
- Probability distribution table
- Dice Simulation
- =
*RANDBETWEEN()*

- Continuous Random Variables
- Assume normal distribution
*=norminv(rand(),$B$2,$B$3)*

- Discrete Random Variables
- Stock Market Simulation

Activity/Assignment:

- Stock Market Simulation in Sheets
- Use Stock Market Simulation as a starting point

- Modifications Part 1
- Generate a 40-year simulation (instead of 30)
- Modify the simulation to add $1,000 to the balance each year
- Make a histogram of your ending balances

- Modifications Part 2
- Add a “fixed income” (bonds) component to your simulation
- Assumptions
- bond market returns are normally distributed
- mean = 7.88%
- standard deviation = 6.86%

- Your “portfolio” should be 60% stocks and 40% bonds

- 1 week ago
- s24-geo101
- Justin

Review:

- Weathering and Mass Wasting
- Schedule
- Tue 16 Apr: Waves and Wind Landforms
- Thu 18 Apr: Landform Presentations
- Tue 23 Apr: Review for Final Exam

- Landform 1-Page Presentation (no video, due to IT)
- Front Page: Overview/Explainer with best imagery
- Back Page: Up to 9 Slides with details
- Due Tue 18 Apr – print copy 2-sided

- Final Exam 1-page cheat sheet
- Course Evaluations

Presentation:

- Fluvial Erosion, Transportation, and Deposition
- Slope Erosion
- splash erosion

- Sediment Yield
- Stream Erosion
- Stream Transportation
- Deposition

- Slope Erosion
- Stream Gradation and Evolution
- Stream Gradation
- Evolution of Stream Valleys (see Figure 15.9 on p. 508 or Slides 18-19)
- Stream Rejuvenation
- Landscape Evolution Theories

- Fluvial Landforms
- Meandering Streams and Floodplains
- Braided Streams
- Deltas

- Fluvial Landforms in Arid Climates
- Chapter 15 Slides

Activity:

- Add one or more slides illustrating how fluvial processes play a role in shaping your landform
- Watch Damocracy (0-21:00)

Assignment:

- Read Chapter 15
- Work on your Landform Slides

- 1 week ago
- s24-geo101
- Justin

Review:

- Tectonic and Volcanic landforms
- Your landform slide deck – keep adding, refining
- Interest in a possible credit opportunity for Landform Video/Presentation?

Presentation:

- Weathering
- Physical weathering
- Frost Action
- Salt-crystal growth
- Thermal Action
- Exfoliation – brittle onion-like flaking
- Biological Action – plant growth

- Chemical weathering
- Hydrolysis – chemical reactions between water and minerals
- Oxidation – oxygen and water react to destabilize metal
- Acid Action

- Slopes and Slope Processes
- Slopes
- Slope Stability

- Physical weathering
- Mass Wasting
- Chapter 13 Slides

Activity:

- How is your landform affected by Weathering and Mass Wasting?
- Physical or mechanical weathering?
- Chemical weathering?
- Slope processes?
- Mass wasting events like landslides or mudflows?

- Create one or more slides, adding to your collection, to describe the impact of weathering.

Assignment:

- Read Chapter 13
- Improve/refine your landform slides

- 2 weeks ago
- s24-geo411
- Justin

Review:

- Exam 2
- Discrete vs Continuous probability/simulation
- This week – discrete
- Next week – continuous

- Lucky 7

Presentation:

- Demonstrate Automation of Lucky 7 Simulation

Activity/Assignment:

**Simulate Chuck-a-luck where the player rolls 3 dice**- Here are the rules
- Apply the following simplifying assumptions
- If sum of 3 dice >10, player wins the “Big” (1 to 1 odds)
- If the roll is three of a kind, player wins “Any Triple” (30 to 1 odds)
- All other outcomes, player loses the bet

- Will the “House” win money over time with these rules? Explain.
- Start with the Lucky 7 Simulation and build on it.

- 2 weeks ago
- s24-geo101
- Justin

Review:

- Plate Tectonics
- Attendance – question 1
- Exam 2 appeals
- Landform sign-up
- Earthquake in Taiwan

Presentation:

- Ch 12 Slides
- Tectonic Landforms
- Earthquakes
- Volcanic Activity and Landforms

- Earthquakes
- Video (National Geographic, 05:01)

- Volcanoes
- Video (National Geographic, 04:58)
- I saw the inside of a volcano in Nicaragua (me, 1:09)

Activity:

- Create a two-page Slide file
- Page 1: What is your landform
- Define and illustrate (with an image of some sort, maybe a map)

- Page 2: Answer the following questions
- Is your selected landform a tectonic landform?
- Is it related to earthquakes or volcanic activity?
- If so, how?
- If not, why not? (e.g., no, my landform was created by glaciers)

- Is your selected landform a tectonic landform?

- Page 1: What is your landform

Assignment:

- Read Chapter 12

- 2 weeks ago
- s24-geo411
- Justin

Review:

- Exam 2
- Median = 94.0
- Average = 83.5

Presentation:

- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Use a random number generator
- Approximate the probability distribution
- Run multiple iterations (like, thousands) and observe distribution of outcomes

- Probability
- Topic worthy of its own course
- Discrete vs Continuous
- Probability distribution for rolling a pair of dice
- Probability distribution for height

- Random Numbers
- Demonstrate RANDBETWEEN() in Sheets
- Demonstrate RAND() in Sheets

- Simulation
- Individual outcomes are uncertain
- Distribution of outcomes over many iterations are predictable.

- Demonstrate Coin Toss Simulation in Sheets

- Dice Simulation
- More RANDBETWEEN()
- Rolling 2 dice
- RANDBETWEEN(1,12) ≠ sum of two dice
- Histogram comparison
- Probability distribution

- Demonstrate Dice simulation in Sheets

Activity/Assignment:

- Create your own Dice Simulation
- Lucky 7 game
- Roll a 7, you win!
- Roll anything else (other than a 7), you lose.

- 2 weeks ago
- s24-geo101
- Justin

Review:

- Spring Break
- Making friends in Vietnam
- Sightseeing, kayaking and drinking coffee on Ha Long Bay
- Enjoying nightlife, street food and train street in Hanoi

- Schedule
- 3.5 weeks to go!
- Covering select parts of Ch 11-17 (skipping Ch 8-10)
- Review for Final Exam on 23 Apr
- Final Exam on 7 May

Presentation:

- Exam 2
- Scores
- >90% 20
- >80% 18
- <80% 11
- median=88.1

- Review of Questions and Answers

- Scores

- Geomorphology
- Skipping the first part of Ch 11 and omitting these topics
- Geologic Time Scale
- Structure
- Materials

- Global Topography
- Theory of Continental Drift
- Alfred Wegener
- Pangea

- Plate Tectonics (CrashCourse, 10:57)

- Skipping the first part of Ch 11 and omitting these topics

Activity:

- Identify a landscape or landform of interest
- Write your selected landscape/landform on my signup sheet
- Maybe it’s a place you know and love
- Maybe it’s a place you’d love to see someday

- Here are some basic categories
- Here are some more exotic or unusual examples
- Here’s an attempt at a comprehensive list
- Here’s my favorite: Karst

- Write your selected landscape/landform on my signup sheet

Assignment:

- Read Chapter 11, Earth Materials and Plate Tectonics, beginning with Global Topography, p. 391-409