Review for Exam 2
March 19, 2024
Presentation:
- Exam 2 will cover Lessons 6-12, focused entirely on Multiple Regression
- Prepare a 1-page (front and back) summary of your Election forecasting model
- Describe how you created the model for your assigned state.
- Include a regression output table for your final model.
- What is your predicted % Trump vote?
- What is your predicted voter turnout (total number of votes cast)?
- Who is your projected winner?
- Assume same % vote will go to 3rd party candidates as in 2020.
- Assume Biden % = 100% – (Trump % + 3rd party %)
- Bring a printed copy of your 1-page summary to the exam
Key topics:
- Possible questions about your election model
- Regression Output Interpretation
- t-statistics
- p-values
- R² measures “goodness of fit” (explains % of variance)
- p-value measures “significance” (probability of result by chance)
- rank by significance
- Multicollinearity
- Interaction Variables
- Categorical data
- Indicator or “Dummy” Variables
- Index Variables
- Modeling
- Residuals
- Actual vs Predicted
- Outliers
Activity:
- Practice Exam
Assignment:
- Study for Exam 2