Lesson 15

Tue, Nov 4

Review:

• Submit Election Forecasts
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
• Grade report

Presentation:

• Multiple Regression

Activity:

• Demonstrate multiple regression in Excel: Ch13-MultipleRegressionProblems

Assignment:

• Problems 13.2, 13.6

Reading:

• Ch 13 p. 524-529

Lesson 14

Thu, Oct 30

Review:

• Submit Voter Turnout Estimates

Presentation:

• Election Forecasting Project: Fundamentals and Polls
• Fundamentals
  • Generic congressional ballot (R +3)
  • Congressional approval ratings (historic lows, reduces incumbent advantage)
  • Fundraising totals (Udall – $18.3 M, Gardner – $10.6 M): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2014
  • Highest office held (Udall – Senate, Gardner – House)
  • Margin of victory in most recent senate race (Udall 52%, Schaffer 43% in 2008)
  • Candidate ideology and state partisanship (Udall – liberal, Gardner – conservative, Colorado – moderate)
• Polls (most recent)
  • Rasmussen 10/23 – Gardner +6
  • YouGov 10/23 – Udall +1
  • Harstad Strategic Research – Even
  • Keating Research – Even
  • Marist College – Gardner +2
  • Quinnipiac Univ – Gardner +3

Activity:

• Estimate Pueblo County Votes by Candidate
• County Assignments: Colorado Election Project

Assignment:

• Election Forecasting Project Part 2: Estimate Votes for Udall, Gardner and Others
  • Estimate Votes by candidate
  • Provide estimates for Pueblo County as well as for assigned Counties (3 each)
  • Describe data sources and methodology
  • Bring estimates to class on Mon
  • Post estimates and description of data/methodology to blog

Reading:

• http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tran/politics/election-lab-2014
• http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/elections-2014-make-your-own-senate-forecast.html

Lesson 13

Tue, Oct 28

Review:

• Exam 2
• Blog 2
• Grade report

Presentation:

• Election Forecasting Project

Activity:

• Estimate Pueblo County Voter Turnout
• County Assignments: Colorado Election Project

Assignment:

• Election Forecasting Project Part 1: Estimate Voter Turnout
  • Estimate Total Voter turnout for assigned Counties (3 each)
  • Describe data sources and methodology
  • Bring estimates to class on Thu.

Reading:

• FiveThirtyEight article
• NYTimes article
• Pew Research article on Voter Turnout

Exam 2 Review

Tue, Oct 14

Review:

• Blog Grades
• Exam 2 on Thu, Oct 16

Presentation: Exam 2 Review

For Exam 2 you need to be prepared to answer questions on the following topics:

• t test of slope
• F test of overall model
• Estimation and Confidence Intervals
• Critical Value Method (hypothesis test) vs Observed Significance (p-value)
• Trend Forecasting
• Measurement of Forecast Error (MAD, MSE)
• Smoothing with Moving Averages and Weighted Moving Averages

Assignment:

• Exam 2 Part 1 (Take Home Problems): BUSAD 360 Exam 2 Part 1

Reading:

• Study for Exam 2 Part 2 (Short Essay)

Exam 2 on Thu Oct 16

Exam 2 will be given Thu, Oct 16th. We will review all exam topics Tue, Oct 14th.

Lesson 12

Thu, Oct 9

Review:

• Measurement of Forecast Error: MAD, MSE and Bias

Presentation:

• Smoothing with Moving Averages
• Trend Analysis

Activity:

• Complete Problems 15.5, Demo 15.6

Assignment:

• Complete Problem 15.8 on p. 617 and Problem 15.12 on p.624

Reading:

• Get your blog ready for grading and prepare for Exam 2 review session.

Lesson 11

Tue, Oct 7

Review:

• Forecasting Trend Line

Presentation:

• Measurement of Forecast Error: MAD, MSE and Bias

Activity:

• Complete Problems 15.1, 15.3, Prob15.1

Assignment:

• Complete Problems 15.2, 15.4 on p.607

Reading:

• p. 608-624, Smoothing, Trend Analysis

Blog Grading on October 10th

Announcement: All assignments up through Lesson 10 should be uploaded and ready to be graded by 8:00 am on Friday, October 10th. 

Lesson 10

Thu, Oct 2

Review:

• Confidence Intervals for Estimation

Presentation:

• Forecasting Trend Line
• Demo problem

Activity:

• Complete Problem 12.49.

Assignment:

• Complete Problems 12.48, 12.50 on p. 509-510

Reading:

• p. 603-606, Intro to Forecasting, Measurement of Forecast Error

Lesson 9

Tue, Sep 30

Review:

• Critical Value Method (Hypothesis testing)
• Observed Significance Level (p-value)

Presentation:

• Confidence Intervals for Estimation

Activity:

• Complete Problem 12.44 but use x=20.

Assignment:

• Complete Problems 12.44, 12.46 on p. 504

Reading:

• p. 504-509, Forecasting Trend Line