Lesson 14

October 30, 2014

Thu, Oct 30

Review:

• Submit Voter Turnout Estimates

Presentation:

• Election Forecasting Project: Fundamentals and Polls
• Fundamentals
  • Generic congressional ballot (R +3)
  • Congressional approval ratings (historic lows, reduces incumbent advantage)
  • Fundraising totals (Udall – $18.3 M, Gardner – $10.6 M): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2014
  • Highest office held (Udall – Senate, Gardner – House)
  • Margin of victory in most recent senate race (Udall 52%, Schaffer 43% in 2008)
  • Candidate ideology and state partisanship (Udall – liberal, Gardner – conservative, Colorado – moderate)
• Polls (most recent)
  • Rasmussen 10/23 – Gardner +6
  • YouGov 10/23 – Udall +1
  • Harstad Strategic Research – Even
  • Keating Research – Even
  • Marist College – Gardner +2
  • Quinnipiac Univ – Gardner +3

Activity:

• Estimate Pueblo County Votes by Candidate
• County Assignments: Colorado Election Project

Assignment:

• Election Forecasting Project Part 2: Estimate Votes for Udall, Gardner and Others
  • Estimate Votes by candidate
  • Provide estimates for Pueblo County as well as for assigned Counties (3 each)
  • Describe data sources and methodology
  • Bring estimates to class on Mon
  • Post estimates and description of data/methodology to blog

Reading:

• http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tran/politics/election-lab-2014
• http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/elections-2014-make-your-own-senate-forecast.html