Pueblo 5-year Report Card

In 2012, I wrote a post about my reasons for moving to Pueblo, Colorado. After approximately 5 years, 120,000 page views and 500 comments, it’s time for a report card to see how things have worked out.

Real Estate: A

One of the primary reasons for returning to my home town was to invest in Pueblo real estate. In 2010 you could drive around most parts of Pueblo and see obviously distressed properties on nearly every block. Foreclosures were almost the entirety of the market and buyers were few and far between. Now we have a seller’s market with insufficient inventory driving prices higher. Although Pueblo real estate is still very affordable compared to anywhere north along the Front Range, it’s no longer easy to find bargains, at least in residential property. And, due to the lengthy post-2008 construction slump, the supply-demand imbalance seems likely to persist and support steady or higher housing prices near term. Pretty solid turn-around, not unlike many parts of the country, but I think Pueblo’s prospects remain very strong thanks to population growth trends we’re seeing throughout Colorado.

If you’re a lifelong Pueblo native it may be difficult to imagine but a population wave is coming to Southern Colorado. It’s already hit Denver Metro expanding north and south, mostly along I-25, leaving high housing costs and traffic in its wake. The same wave that has filled in open spaces from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs will continue to move south, albeit at a slower pace.  Pueblo is already seeing population growth and a lot more will come as high-flying housing prices and crushing traffic in Denver continue to push some residents to relocate. This wave of people seeking the good life in Colorado will generate demand for housing and Pueblo’s economy stands to benefit substantially. This also makes the next decade an important time for Pueblo to get its ducks in a row.

Climate: A

I love Pueblo’s mild, sunny, four-season climate. Think Albuquerque rather than Denver. Summers definitely feel hotter than they were in the 80s but winters are milder too. In the past year, I played golf on Thanksgiving and New Years Day. My style of golf involves no gear except for an 8-iron and a golf ball and I usually only play 3-4 holes, but still, we’re talking year round access to the great Colorado outdoors. The sunshine is particularly valuable as solar becomes a more viable and inexpensive source of energy. We installed rooftop solar in 2015 and it’s been a terrific investment, despite our fox-guarding-the-hen-house situation with Black Hills Energy. Thanks to bountiful solar radiation in Pueblo we produce more than enough electricity for our own needs plus we’re paid for net production. Life is good when Black Hills pays you and not the other way around.

Crime: B

The top concern I hear from prospective Pueblo residents is crime. If you read the comments on my original Why Pueblo post you’ll see many are wary of finding themselves in a dangerous neighborhood. I did a deep dive on crime data this past fall to counter dishonest claims made by the Pueblo Chieftain Editorial Board and a band of like-minded partisans who called themselves Citizens for a Healthy Pueblo (now they call themselves ProPueblo but they should consider renaming themselves Pro-Status-Quo-Pueblo because their primary objective is to keep Pueblo the way it is, complete with vision-free community leadership and a stagnant economy). Despite their efforts to use scare tactics and anecdote to tie marijuana legalization to increased criminal activity, it just ain’t so. They also blame marijuana on the increase in homeless population but they don’t have a shred of proof, nor any meaningful understanding of statistical correlation.

Perhaps because many among them have ties to local hospitals they remain unwilling to acknowledge their own role in creating the real drug problem infecting our community: the Opioid Epidemic. I think a serious effort to understand the true cause of criminal behavior in Pueblo would show a strong connection to opioid and heroin traffic and abuse. Prove me wrong ProPueblo!

K-12 Education: D

The biggest disappointment to me in Pueblo is the sorry state of primary education. The problem is partly driven by national politicized anti-education forces but Pueblo seems to be doing a particularly poor job of defending and nourishing its public schools. There are certainly bright spots in District 60 and District 70 (see my analysis for 3rd Grade, 7th Grade and 10th Grade math performance) and I know families whose children are thriving in Pueblo schools but, overall, Pueblo is failing to provide an adequate primary education system. There are several reasons Pueblo schools are struggling.

Failure of Local Leadership – a few years ago District 60 hired Constance Jones as Superintendent and, from my vantage point, she was doing the right things to improve Pueblo schools. But the D60 school board inexplicably forced her out. I don’t really know the reasoning and it doesn’t seem anyone else in the community really knows either. Check the Pueblo Pulp for an excellent series of articles on the fiasco. I think it comes down to a systemic problem in just about every facet of business in Pueblo. There is a circle-the-wagons mentality. We desperately need outside expertise for Pueblo to grow and prosper but the powers that be in Pueblo prefer to repel the same experts who are in the best position to help the community. I’ve seen this through the lens of a few personal friends who came to Pueblo to run an organization or a department or a business and were essentially forced out because they were too aggressive about pursuing best practices and doing what’s right for their organization. Sadly, small-mindedness runs rampant in Pueblo and holds the community back from reaching its full potential.

Inadequate Private School Options – Pueblo doesn’t have a single private high school. This is really a major problem. Families need options. I suspect both Parkview and St. Mary Corwin have a very difficult time convincing top medical talent to move to Pueblo and I am willing to wager that a top concern is inadequate educational opportunities for children. Private schools in Colorado Springs, including Fountain Valley School, the Colorado Springs School and St. Mary’s Academy, are all enrolling Pueblo students to fill the gap. I’ve heard St. Therese (in Pueblo) has some sort of high school option but my impression is that you can count the number of students enrolled on one hand. It’s also obvious to me that Pueblo needs at least one private school on the north side of the city. All current private school options I’m aware of are south of the Arkansas river while the vast majority of recent residential growth is on the north side of the city. Here’s an idea – use some of the Pedco money to provide a grant for a non-profit to start a private school in the vacant Somerlid Elementary campus on West Street between 27th and 28th. Personally, I favor Montessori methods but any non-sectarian approach will do. I’m willing to bet the 5-year ROI (if it could be accurately measured) would outshine Pewag, Vesta, and any other Pedco-sponsored employer in terms of net positive economic impact.

Political Collateral Damage – just like everywhere in the US, public schools and teacher unions are under attack. In the current anti-civilization political climate championed by the GOP, public schools and public educators are systematically denigrated.  In a country where Betsy DeVos is Education Secretary it’s difficult to see how public schools will recover near term. If anything this situation is worse in Pueblo thanks to biased reporting by the Pueblo Chieftain. As if being a teacher answering to demanding parents, administrators and students wasn’t difficult enough they must also deal with the politics of education policy. No wonder so few talented people are pursuing teaching careers.

Sprawl – as people continue to move from within Pueblo city limits to Pueblo West, Blende/Avondale, Beulah, Rye and elsewhere, the tax base for D60 continues to decline. This is a self-reinforcing downward spiral. I’ve written about the problem with sprawl in Pueblo West elsewhere and it’s part of the reason I advocate a toll booth between Pueblo and Pueblo West to counteract the sprawl-induced economic damage. I’m not the only one with this point of view. Joe Minicozzi, an urban planning expert who spoke at a recent Colorado Downtown Inc conference in Pueblo, had this quote published in the Chieftain:

On a per-acre basis, Pueblo West’s high infrastructure costs and relatively low property valuations and tax contributions hurt the economic health of the entire Pueblo area, particularly the city of Pueblo, he said. “It’s just going to drag the whole county down in the process,” said Minicozzi, known nationally for his work on analyzing the economic impact of land use.

Overall: B

Overall, I’ve loved living in Pueblo. I wish I could issue an A grade. It’s my home town and I feel very comfortable investing in Pueblo despite all these challenges. And, I’ll continue to be in Pueblo as I run a technology business with an office in downtown Pueblo, I teach Statistics in the Hasan School of Business at CSU-Pueblo and I own rental properties in Pueblo. But, primarily due to personal struggles with the education system in Pueblo (and we bear as much responsibility for mistakes as any school or district – it’s no picnic advocating for the educational needs of individual children these days), our kids are attending school in Colorado Springs and have been for the past 3 years. As a result my wife and kids’ social circle is in Colorado Springs. And, to make life more convenient for my wife and kids, we have recently relocated to Colorado Springs.

I suppose this will be good fodder for those who want to poke fun at my original blog post and subsequent comments promoting Pueblo. Ha ha, Mr. Pueblo moved to Springs! Have fun with that. But, at the end of the day, I’m not married to Pueblo, I’m married to my beautiful, amazing wife and committed to doing what’s best for our family. So, I’ll be commuting from southwest Colorado Springs for the foreseeable future. And I’m willing to pay a toll for the privilege of doing business in the great city of Pueblo … so long as Pueblo West residents are paying the same toll.

By the way, our house in Pueblo is for sale. Make me an offer and you too can get paid by Black Hills. 🙂

 

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2017 Geography Graduate Program Rankings

If you’re thinking about going to graduate school in Geography in Fall 2018 you should be getting started now. Some programs have deadlines before the end of the calendar year and you have some work to do to find the right research mentor. You also need time to study for the GRE and take it twice to be sure you apply with the best score possible. Fair or not, your GRE score is probably the most important element of your application because it’s the easiest way for admission committees to sort and rank applicants.

One place to start your grad school campaign is by checking out the AAG Guide to Geography Programs. I downloaded the most recent AAG Guide so I could identify every PhD program in the US as a starting point. For my rankings this year I’ve decided to provide a more lengthy list of programs divided into tiers. All of these programs offer a PhD in Geography. This, to me, is important because I think you’re far better off attending a program where you can stay for a PhD if you decide to go beyond a Master’s. Staying with the same department for a PhD after completing a Master’s will usually save you at least 1 year of grad student poverty, maybe more. Plus, you’ll encounter better research mentors at PhD granting departments and you’ll likely have a better overall experience at a flagship public University. This is not to say programs offering a Master’s degree in Geography but no PhD aren’t worthy of your consideration. But, it’s not practical for me to rank every program on the planet. And, I just think it’s better to have the option to continue grad school without disrupting your personal life. Things get complicated as you move through life. People tend to form life-long partnerships, have kids, buy real estate, form tight-knit social circles, etc. This can make moving to a new program problematic.

So, building on my rankings from 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, I submit to you my geography graduate program recommendations for 2017, listed alphabetically within each tier.

Tier 1:

  • UC Santa Barbara
  • Colorado
  • Ohio State
  • Oregon
  • Penn State
  • Wisconsin

Tier 2:

  • Arizona
  • Arizona State
  • UCLA
  • Clark
  • Illinois
  • Michigan State
  • Buffalo

Tier 3:

  • UC Berkeley
  • Boston
  • Iowa
  • Kentucky
  • Maryland
  • Minnesota
  • North Carolina
  • Oregon State
  • South Carolina
  • Tennessee

Tier 4:

  • Delaware
  • Kansas
  • Kansas State
  • Oklahoma
  • Oklahoma State
  • Texas A&M
  • Texas State
  • Washington

Tier 5:

  • Alabama
  • Connecticut
  • Florida
  • Florida State
  • Georgia
  • Hawaii
  • Indiana
  • LSU
  • Nebraska
  • Syracuse
  • Texas
  • Utah
  • George Mason
  • West Virginia

Tier 6:

  • Denver
  • South Florida
  • Idaho
  • Northern Illinois
  • Indiana State
  • Maryland, Baltimore County
  • Southern Mississippi
  • Nevada, Reno
  • Rutgers
  • UNC Charlotte
  • UNC Greensboro
  • Kent State
  • North Texas
  • Wisconsin, Milwaukee

Notes:

The AAG omitted Boston University and the University of Georgia from their list of PhD granting departments. Not sure why. The AAG also listed Georgia State and Southern Illinois among PhD granting departments but, from what I can gather, these departments do not offer a PhD in Geography. There are a handful of departments offering a PhD in Geography but only as an interdisciplinary degree and/or in conjunction with one or more other departments. These programs include UC Davis, Florida International, Toledo, Portland State, Temple, South Dakota State and the University of Southern California (USC). Any of these programs might make a great individual fit for you but I can’t recommend them to most aspiring geographers.

Hey, where are the online programs? I didn’t bother with them this year for three reasons. One, I don’t recommend online graduate education. Learning face-to-face from an experienced researcher is better. Two, there are a lot of programs coming and going and it’s difficult to know which ones are worthy of recommendation and which are fly-by-night efforts to boost revenue. Three, some of these programs charge extremely high tuition and I don’t want to be seen as recommending accumulation of student debt as part of a successful career campaign. You’re better off scraping by however you can and avoiding debt while pursuing your education, even if it takes more time.

GIS is the future, dude. Why should I even bother studying geography? I’ll just get a GIS certificate and take a short cut.

Well, GIS is actually the past, dude. The future (for private sector careers and academic research) in geography will be driven by advances in data science applied to spatial problems. You won’t really become savvy in computational methods, data visualization or other data-intensive fields of study by taking classes online. You need a mentor who knows how to do this stuff properly. And you need a deeper understanding of the world, the ability to think spatially and the quantitative and qualitative skills to solve complex problems. You won’t get that with a GIS certificate.

As always, I welcome your comments, critiques and corrections.

 

 

 

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How Lufthansa Tried to Screw Me Out of $5,000

This time last year I was stuck overnight in Houston because I missed a flight to Nicaragua. This year I am stuck in Denver after missing a flight to Germany. What kind of bozo misses 2 international flights in 2 consecutive years?

Last year it was completely my fault but this year I was, mostly, innocent. Traffic was really bad through Colorado Springs and most of the way to Castle Rock. We showed up to the airport about 45 minutes before departure. I thought we were going to make it, just by the skin of our teeth.

I am traveling with my 13 year old son. We’re going to Germany to visit the grave site of my grandfather, who was killed in action in the European theater during World War II. My son is named after him so it seems fitting for a young boy coming of age, or close to it. When, exactly, does that happen?

So anyway, we arrive with very little time to spare, especially for an international flight, but I remained confident. We park in short term parking and sprint into the airport. First major obstacle: we are turned away at security. I purchased plane tickets together and when checking in assumed we had electronic boarding passes for both me and my son. Turns out I was wrong. We sprint to the Lufthansa counter and they say it’s too late to issue another boarding pass. Instead we are handed a business card with a smattering of toll free numbers and told to call Lufthansa for assistance.

This was my first big mistake. I should have insisted on speaking with a supervisor at the ticket counter. I think we still had a chance to make the flight.

So I call Lufthansa and, after waiting on hold for about 20 minutes, I explain the situation to a Lufthansa customer service representative who, I’m nearly certain, is speaking to me from Asia. At this point I know we’re not going to make the flight so I begin asking about re-booking options. No problem they say. All we need is the difference between what we originally paid for the flight (~$1200 for 2 tickets) and the cost of booking at that moment. The total would be $5,000 (not exactly, I think it was $5,045 or something like that). I said, “No fucking way” and asked for a supervisor. The supervisor was easier to communicate with but she didn’t really care what I thought of the $5,000 change fee. She was unwilling to compromise in any way and insisted I either fork over 5 Gs or become a “no show” which would mean losing our tickets.

I was furious, of course. I refused to pay and asked for her name so I could specify to Lufthansa officials who was refusing to provide reasonable customer service. They probably could have soaked me for $500. But $5,000? No chance. So, after some eloquent and thoughtful pleasantries before saying good bye, I hung up and walked back to the Lufthansa ticket counter.

Again, I relay our epic saga, pleading for mercy. The Lufthansa agent says “no problem”, takes our passports and returns 5 minutes later with boarding passes for the same direct flight 24 hours later.

I know. Sort of an anticlimactic ending, right?

So, we stayed at a nearby Hampton Inn last night and dined at the Moonlight Cafe where we ordered huge cheeseburgers, fries and milkshakes. Here’s my son enjoying his meal (with me in the reflection).

20170506_132017

But then this morning something struck me. Is it official policy for Lufthansa (and other airlines) to attempt to gauge customers who call customer service to re-book after missing a flight? If I wasn’t such a cheapskate maybe I would have paid up. Well, I’d never pay $5k but I might have paid as much as $1k. This trip is a big deal for me and my son. Why would such a discrepancy in customer service policy exist? Why would a Lufthansa customer service agent on the phone demand $5,000 when the gate agent is willing to issue next day boarding passes without even asking for a nominal change fee?

Big companies suck. Airlines suck. Air travel sucks.

The benefits of international travel are still worth the hassle … I think. I know my son’s worldview will be greatly enhanced by seeing another corner of the planet. But the value equation is getting worse every year. And recent anti-immigration political fervor won’t help. Fewer international students will be enrolling overseas. Fewer scholars will be teaching overseas. Fewer businessmen will be doing business in “foreign” cultures. Fewer humans will be developing empathy for other humans who look, speak, eat, work and play differently.

Fewer people will travel. That’s bad for all of us.

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Marijuana and Homelessness in Pueblo: Show me the Data

An editorial printed Thursday, March 9th by the Pueblo Chieftain states,

No, marijuana is not the only cause of homelessness, but there’s an inescapable statistical connection between the lure of legal pot and other reasons people are drawn to Pueblo.

The Chieftain’s Editorial Board states this as if a statistically significant relationship has been established between marijuana legalization and homelessness; but, no meaningful data are presented to substantiate such a claim. What they do present is a series of numbers tied to a 2010 start date in a feeble attempt to establish a correlation.

Pueblo County’s jailing of the homeless has nearly tripled since 2010, many of them for committing violent crimes. The increase – to 565 arrests, including 63 involving violence, in 2016, from 204, including 30 for violence, in 2010 – has grown apace since Colorado legalized recreational marijuana in 2012.

Huh? Using 2010 as a start date makes no sense. Marijuana legalization didn’t go into effect until 2014. They even acknowledge the legislation itself wasn’t passed until November 2012. So, this does nothing to establish a meaningful correlation and even if it did the axiom, “correlation does not imply causation” is an important concept to understand before throwing around the phrase “inescapable statistical connection” as if the Editorial Board was an authority on such matters.

This reminds me of the dishonest assertions made by “Citizens for a Healthy Pueblo” who claimed crime in Pueblo had increased due to marijuana legalization. I examined crime data reported by the Pueblo Police Department and the Pueblo County Sheriff’s Office and found no evidence whatsoever to support such a claim. Quite the contrary as the vast majority of crime categories have seen a decrease since marijuana legalization went into effect in 2014.

The Pueblo Chieftain has been making the same ridiculous claims for years without ever providing data or anything other than seemingly biased anecdotes from leaders of local non-profit groups who serve the homeless. Time and again politically conservative community leaders and groups, including the Chieftain, have tried to blame marijuana legalization for a perceived rise in homelessness, violent crime and general lawlessness. But at no time have they provided credible evidence or legitimate data to substantiate these claims.

It seems entirely plausible to me that the rise in homelessness and the rise in violent behavior among the homeless is driven by the opioid epidemic plaguing the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cites studies indicating sales of prescription opioids and overdose deaths involving opioids (including prescription opioids and heroin) have both quadrupled in the past 15 years. Unlike the Chieftain, the CDC actually analyzes data to arrive at these conclusions.

Here’s a suggestion for the Chieftain’s Editorial Board: either provide data to substantiate your claims or stop using big words, like “statistical”, that you clearly don’t understand.

 

 

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Five Reasons to Choose the University of Buffalo

If you’re considering a spatial career and wondering where you might find a strong geography program, I would urge you to take a very close look at the University of Buffalo. Buffalo has been a leading geography department for many years and continues to provide an innovative and rigorous analytical approach to geography education.

Last week I was fortunate enough to visit the geography department at “UB” and speak to the department’s faculty and graduate students about spatial careers as part of their Colloquium Series. I had a delightful time touring department facilities, meeting faculty and spending time with a terrific group of graduate students.

Here are 5 reason to choose the University of Buffalo:

  1. Curriculum is well balanced with faculty expertise and required coursework in human geography, physical geography and geographic techniques (GIS, spatial statistics, visualization). Learning to think spatially comes from understanding of both human and physical processes shaping the earth’s surface along with the ability to analyze and visualize spatial data.
  2. Top notch faculty has strong spatial expertise. You’d be hard-pressed to find a more distinguished faculty for spatial-related studies. Check out (in alphabetical order): Jared Aldstadt, Ling Bian, Geoffrey Jacquez, Peter Rogerson, Monica Stephens, Adam Wilson and Eun-Hye Enki Yoo for an all star line-up of potential grad school advisors.
  3. Home to one of three National Centers for Geographical Information and Analysis (NCGIA) along with unique offerings in International Trade and Health Geography.
  4. Buffalo is a cool city and, like many recovering rust belt cities, is undergoing an urban renaissance of sorts after decades of decline. It’s also an affordable place to live. The weather sucks but you’ll be studying anyway, right?
  5. Department has strong sense of collegiality among faculty and graduate students. Friendly places are better learning environments… and more fun.

Here’s a gif from my dinner out with a great group of graduate students (click on the image to load animation). Good times…except for the collective disappointment when Sarah didn’t finish her rice. 😉

BuffaloGradStudents

 

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Fight for Economic Justice and Racial Justice Will Follow

A few of my students asked if I plan to write a blog post about the election. I think many of them are trying to understand why the American electorate has chosen someone they consider to be a racist as President. It’s not an easy topic to cover in a classroom. It’s difficult to find the right words.

I want to tell them not to worry too much and everything will be okay. But I can’t yet. I’m still trying to convince myself.

My family and I lived in Michigan for 7.5 years before moving to Colorado in 2012. I think I know and understand the voters in the Rust Belt and the upper Midwest who, essentially, elected Donald Trump. I know the overwhelming majority are not racists. They’re good people who have been hit hard economically and they don’t see any light at the end of the tunnel. They feel compelled to shake things up in DC and if electing a repulsive clown like Trump is what it takes to “drain the swamp” they figure so be it. They’ve lost patience because neither political party has made a meaningful effort to correct the outrageous economic injustices we’ve witnessed in the past 2-3 decades.

But I also know the bigotry is real. Worse, the population of Americans who, essentially, favor racial discrimination is shockingly large. Real life characters depicted in movies like “Mississippi Burning”, “American History X” et al actually exist…today. The incidents of overt racism I’ve seen and read about since the conclusion of the election are frightening. I think I understand how the protesters feel. I think I understand how my students of color feel. I think I understand the fear. But maybe not. I am, after all, a straight middle-age white man so I haven’t been on the receiving end of the hateful discrimination they know all too well.

I voted for Hillary Clinton. She may not have been a great candidate but I think she would have been a good President. At the same time, I have to admit feeling disgusted with the Democrats who were complicit in allowing Wall Street banks to steal an entire generation worth of prosperity from the American working class. Who was punished? What has changed to prevent another economic meltdown? We have a fully re-inflated stock market and housing market, but what have we done to correct these injustices?

We have a few new capital requirements for banks but we haven’t re-gained critical provisions from the Glass-Steagall Act. The $550 trillion (yes, with a T) derivatives market remains almost entirely unregulated. The Fed is still clueless and full of Greenspan/Bernanke disciples who learned to drop money from helicopters but somehow managed to overlook regulatory lessons from the Great Depression. We still have a handful of too-big-to-fail banks who should have been broken up 7 years ago. The Fed still gives these banks free money to use for speculation and executive bonuses. Wall Street CEOs still make more in a month than a working class family can make in a lifetime. The entire financial sector produces very little of value while exerting extraordinary financial pressure on publicly traded businesses to think short term, even when it’s not in their long term interest. These pressures, just as much as NAFTA or any other trade agreement, have led to offshoring of American jobs and the elimination of middle class incomes.

While the GOP leads the charge to deregulate and enable exploitation of the working class, Democrats are only interested in increasing tax rates for the rich and increasing entitlements for the poor. These are band-aids. We’re treating the symptoms. But we’ve done nothing to bring about a cure.

What’s the cure?

The economic playing field must be level. This doesn’t mean socialism and a return to huge marginal tax rates but it does mean financial re-regulation. Wall Street has been encouraged to gamble recklessly with a robust safety net while the working class has been asked to compete globally without any meaningful safety net. Tax breaks for the rich have been handed out in the name of stimulating small business growth while simultaneously protecting monopolies and making it nearly impossible for small businesses to compete in many industries. Students have been saddled with crippling debt while the architects of the mortgage meltdown have been handed golden parachutes.

In other words, we’re being asked to play a game of Monopoly on the big board. But we don’t get $1500 to start the game, we aren’t allowed to buy railroads, utilities or properties and we can’t draw a Get Out of Jail Free card from Chance or Community Chest. All we can do is hope for lucky rolls of the dice so we can Pass Go and live to fight another day. The rules must be changed.

How do we get there?

We have to take back government one seat at a time. For me it starts in the House of Representatives and in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Republican Scott Tipton must be defeated in 2018. We can’t cry about gerrymandering or make other excuses. We have to win elections.

Marching and protesting in the streets will get people’s attention but it’s not enough. Maybe the protests will force Trump to disavow white nationalists who now feel emboldened to openly express hatred and threaten violence. I hope so. But that won’t be enough either.

The rise of racial discrimination has its roots in economic injustice. The fix must involve an effort to reconstruct the regulatory scaffolding that once protected the working class from the Banksters and Corporate Pirates who have fleeced all of us for far too long. Only then will we be able to isolate and defeat the racists and move toward a more prosperous and harmonious society.

So, to my students who feel betrayed, it’s time to grit your teeth and get ready to fight. The next battle will take place November 6th, 2018. Enlist in the political process. Vote. Take political power away from the bigots. That’s what they just did to you.

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Data Analytics for Cyber Security Defense

Fri, Nov 11

Data Analytics for Cyber Security

  • Probability for Normal Distributions
    • Normal (Bell-shaped) Curve
    • Standard Normal and Z-Scores
      • Standard Normal Distribution
        • Mean = 0
        • Standard Deviation = 1
        • N(0, 1)
      • Z-Scores
        • Z = (x – mean)/std dev
        • Example
          • Young women heights (inches)
          • N(64.5, 2.5)
          • Z-Score for woman 68 inches tall; Z = (68 – 64.5)/2.5 = 1.4
          • Z-Score for woman 60 inches tall; Z = (60 – 64.5)/2.5 = -1.8
          • Z-table
      • Empirical Rule Probabilities- 68-95-99.7
      • Normal Curve Calculations with Z-Scores
    • Why Normal Distribution is the most important distribution
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Eight Reasons Pueblo Should Vote No on 200 and 300

I received my ballot yesterday. I can’t wait to move beyond this bizarre election. November 9th can’t come soon enough. In the meantime, I feel compelled to speak out against a pair of misguided local ballot measures.

Ballot Question 200
Shall the Pueblo County Code be amended by Ordinance to prohibit all licensed Retail (recreational) Marijuana Establishments in all areas under the licensing jurisdiction of Pueblo County, by requiring all existing Retail Marijuana Testing Facilities, Retail Marijuana Cultivation Facilities, Retail Marijuana Product Manufacturing Facilities, and Retail Marijuana Stores to close by October 31, 2017 and by immediately prohibiting Pueblo County from approving all new licenses for these Facilities?                             ______YES/FOR         __X__NO/AGAINST

Question 300 (Prohibition of Marijuana Establishments)
Shall Chapter 11 of Title XI of the Pueblo Municipal Code be amended by the addition of a new Section and the adoption of Ordinance No. 9009 prohibiting new Retail Marijuana Establishments and ceasing the operation of all currently licensed Retail Marijuana Establishments by October 31, 2017?_______YES/FOR __X__NO/AGAINST

Here are eight reasons to Vote NO on Ballot Initiative 200 and 300.

  1. Marijuana legalization has NOT caused an increase in crime. Despite the propaganda from Citizens for a Healthy Pueblo to the contrary there is no credible evidence, none whatsoever, that legalization of marijuana has caused any increase in crime in Pueblo County.
  2. Addiction to prescription pain killers and heroin is the real drug problem and hospitals are complicit in its rise. Ironically, if there has been an increase in criminal activity, it is far more closely linked to the dramatic rise in heroin use. I say this is ironic because our 2 hospitals, Parkview and St. Mary Corwin are responsible for putting Initiative 200 and 300 on the ballot. They are also at least partially responsible for the growing heroin addiction problem in our community due to their dangerous habit of over prescribing opiate-based pain killers like Oxycodone.
  3. Marijuana prohibition is a form of institutional racism. Marijuana and hemp were important crops in the US until racist Americans opposed to immigration from south of the border began to use anti-marijuana propaganda as an excuse to prosecute Mexican immigrants in the early 20th Century. I’m not suggesting local proponents of 200 and 300 are racists. But, they’re deploying the same tactics and propaganda used in the early 1900s to criminalize marijuana, providing a convenient tool for incarcerating people of color. One of Pueblo’s greatest strengths is our Hispanic population and our community’s many links to Mexican culture. Why then would Pueblo choose to re-enact a racially motivated prohibition, originally designed to criminalize Mexican immigrants?
  4. Alcohol, tobacco… heck, even fructose all pose greater public health risks than marijuana. No one dies of an overdose from smoking marijuana. If we’re going to restrict freedoms based on risks to public health we need to be consistent. Check out the CDC’s website and read about the public health impacts of legal substances like alcohol and tobacco versus marijuana. It’s not even close.
  5. Pueblo’s economy is finally showing signs of life thanks in part to investments in the marijuana industry. The positive impact of increased tax revenue is just a small piece of the puzzle. Ask local realtors how the real estate market would be impacted by a return to prohibition. Ask the Chieftain and the Pulp how they’ll do without ad revenue from retail marijuana businesses. Ask commercial property owners if they prefer higher vacancy rates. Ask employees working in one of the many new marijuana businesses how they feel about looking for a different source of income.
  6. Prohibition of retail marijuana will not reduce consumption or improve public health. People will continue to use marijuana either way. This ballot measure won’t change that a bit. If you want to have a meaningful impact on public health, maybe consider making marijuana “edibles” illegal because of the risk to children and others who might unknowingly consume marijuana. Now that might make sense. Our medical community knows how to use a scalpel; why are they deploying a chainsaw?
  7. Even if the Ballot measure passes it will be challenged in court. The people who have invested large amounts of money to become licensed marijuana business owners will have a legitimate claim to financial restitution. Do you think they’ll just close shop and walk away? Who’s going to compensate them for the bait and switch? Will the hospitals pick up the tab? Of course not, taxpayers will be stuck with the bill. And local government services will suffer deficits in the meantime. Furthermore, a long and drawn out court battle will keep a cloud of uncertainty over Pueblo County’s economy. Investors are already in a holding pattern waiting to see if we have enough sense to take their money.
  8. Prohibition will advertise that Pueblo suffers from a bad case of economic illiteracy.  The rest of the State and everyone in the U.S. laying the groundwork for the new multi-billion dollar cannabis industry will understand clearly that, despite 30+ years of economic stagnation in Pueblo, we don’t want prosperity. Not here. We’re too provincial for innovation. We’re too ignorant to recognize the potential benefits of making Pueblo a hub for cannabis research and industry. We’re too afraid of taking risks. We’re too stupid to grab an economic life-jacket even when it’s already securely fastened around our chest.

I know many people in Pueblo who are on the other side of this issue. I respect them. And I think I understand their point of view. They’ve been told their whole life marijuana is bad and wrong.

But clearly Marijuana is no more harmful than many legal substances. Scientists and physicians know this is true. The public has figured it out too. It’s game over for the prohibitionists. Legalized cannabis in the U.S is now inevitable. We can either prosper thanks to the head start we’ve been given in Colorado or we can let other communities reap the economic rewards.

If you’re on the fence on this issue, at the very least give it more time before succumbing to baseless fear mongering from the political conservatives fighting a culture war. Don’t chop down Pueblo’s first shoots of economic growth in a generation before we even see what sort of flower might bloom.

Vote NO on 200 and 300.

Thanks for reading.

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“Citizens for a Healthy Pueblo” Making False Claims About Crime

One of the most contentious issues for voters in Pueblo this election season involves the future of retail marijuana.

A group associated with the 2 major hospitals in Pueblo, calling themselves Citizens for a Healthy Pueblo, have stated adamantly, as if it were proven fact, that crime has increased substantially since marijuana legalization.

Well, despite superior scientific training in medicine, these citizens seem to know nothing at all about data analysis.

Let’s look at crime statistics published by the State of Colorado to explore whether claims of dramatically increased criminal activity are valid. I downloaded all data presented below from the Colorado Bureau of Investigation on the State of Colorado’s official web portal. You’ll see reports from both the Pueblo Police Department and the Pueblo County Sheriff’s office are included in each chart.

There are eight major crime categories reported by law enforcement agencies: arson, assault, burglary, larceny/theft, motor vehicle theft, murder/manslaughter, rape and robbery (in alphabetical order). I’ve compiled data for the time period 2009-2015 illustrating 7 years of reported crimes with 2009-2013 data reflecting crime rates prior to marijuana legalization and 2014-2015 showing crime rates after legalization went into effect.

arson
assault
burglary01
larceny-theft
motorvehicletheft
murder-manslaughter
rape
robbery

There are two anomalies worth noting in these data.

  • First, reports of rape by the Pueblo Police Department skyrocketed in 2013 (before marijuana legalization). My best guess is there was some sort of change in reporting criteria or some other irregularity since I don’t recall hearing about an explosion of rape incidents. Perhaps someone from the Pueblo PD can explain the eight-fold increase between 2012 and 2013?
  • Second, 2012 appears to have been an extraordinarily quiet year for the Pueblo County Sheriff’s office. To me, it looks like only a portion of crime data was reported for 2012. Perhaps the County Sheriff’s office could clarify?

I have no expertise in criminal justice so maybe I’m missing something here. That said, I do have expertise in data analysis and in my opinion there’s absolutely no justification whatsoever for claims of an increase in crime since marijuana was legalized in January 2014.

In fact, you might more convincingly argue crime is down looking at the assault, larceny/theft, and robbery categories. If you look at data reported by the Pueblo County Sheriff’s office you can see crime rates trending down in nearly every category since 2013. Good job Sheriff Taylor!

So, since all retail marijuana outlets are currently located outside Pueblo city limits, should we conclude retail marijuana has reduced crime? Well, no. I don’t see that either. Concluding crime is down due to marijuana legalization would be a dishonest interpretation of the data….sort of like violating the Hippocratic Oath.

Now who would stoop so low to deceive the good citizens of Pueblo?

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