Lesson 8: War in Ukraine
Review:
- Oil and Oligarchy in Putin’s Russia
- Schedule
- Review for Exam 1 on Wed Feb 18
- Exam 1 on Mon Feb 23
Presentation:
- War in Ukraine
1. Origins of the Conflict
In late 2013, Ukraine’s president (Victor Yanukovych) abandoned plans to sign a trade agreement with the European Union and instead moved closer to Russia. This prompted major protests in Kyiv (the “Maidan” movement) until Yanukovych fled the country.
Russia viewed these events as Western-backed interference in its sphere of influence. In response, Russia annexed Crimea. In addition, pro-Russian separatists, supported by the Kremlin, took control of parts of eastern Ukraine (Donetsk and Luhansk). From 2014 to 2022, fighting continued in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine increasingly oriented itself toward Europe + US, seeking closer political/economic/military ties.
2. The 2022 Invasion
In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Many analysts expected Ukraine to fall quickly. Instead, Ukrainian forces repelled the advance on Kyiv and Russia withdrew from northern Ukraine. Since then, the conflict has become largely a war of attrition with Russia holding territory in eastern and southern regions.
3. What are Russia and Ukraine Fighting For?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has justified the invasion in several ways:
- Preventing NATO expansion into Russia’s historical sphere of influence.
- Protecting Russian-speaking populations in eastern Ukraine.
- Arguing that Ukraine is historically part of the Russian world.
Ukraine frames the war as:
- A fight for national survival and independence.
- A defense of sovereignty against territorial conquest.
- A defense of democratic self-determination.
4. The United States and Europe
The United States and European countries have:
- Supplied Ukraine with weapons, intelligence, and financial support.
- Imposed economic sanctions on Russia.
- Reduced (but not eliminated) purchases of Russian energy.
However, NATO forces have not directly entered the war. Western governments seek to avoid a direct NATO–Russia conflict, given that Russia possesses the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.
5. China
- Called for negotiations and ceasefires.
- Avoided formally condemning Russia.
- Criticized Western sanctions.
- Framed the war as a result of NATO expansion and security tensions.
- Became Russia’s largest trading partner.
6. The Current Military Situation (Feb 2026)
- Ukraine controls roughly 80 percent of its pre-2022 territory.
- Russia occupies most of Crimea and large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine.
- Front lines have moved slowly.
- Casualties are high on both sides.
- Both countries have suffered economic strain.
7. Economic and Political Effects on Russia
- Western sanctions have reduced foreign investment.
- Defense spending has surged.
- The economy has shifted toward military production.
- Political repression has increased.
- Dependence on China
8. Why This War Matters Globally
The conflict raises broader international questions:
- Can borders be changed by force?
- Does NATO expansion provoke or deter conflict?
- Can sanctions reshape state behavior?
- What role should the U.S. play in European security?
- How does the war affect U.S.-China competition?
The outcome will influence global norms about sovereignty, territorial conquest, and the credibility of security guarantees.
Activity:
- Read Why Putin Still Prefers War
- Read NATO Pressure Scenario
- Discuss in small groups
