Lesson 25: Investing in the 2020s Global Economy

April 29, 2026

Review:

  • Sovereign Debt Yields
  • 5 dimensions of authoritarianism
    • Repression apparatus
    • Cash flow
    • Control over life choices
    • Narrative of legitimacy
    • Geopolitical environment
  • Course Evaluations
  • Final Exam
    • Cumulative – all content covered this semester
    • Review on Mon May 4
    • Exam on Wed May 6

Presentation:

  • Outlook for the global economy
    • Bullish long-term (20+ years)
    • Bearish short-term (5-10 years)
    • Drivers of long-term growth
      • Information technologies
      • Medical technologies
      • Globally integrated markets
      • Emerging economies (India, East/Southeast Asia, Latin America)
      • Demographic trends
    • Barriers to long-term growth
  • All investing is value investing (otherwise, it’s speculation)
    • Buy sustainable businesses at discount prices
    • Most publicly traded companies are overvalued
    • Most US real estate is selling at inflated prices
    • Emerging markets
    • Watch for major price reductions in reliable assets
  • Reliable vehicles for wealth accumulation
    • Rental property
    • Productive land (farms, timber, mineral rights, water rights)
    • Profitable businesses (that you own, not where you work)
    • Dividend paying stocks
    • It’s only an asset if it generates positive cash-flow
  • Future of money
    • Currencies may be a wild ride
    • Precious metals – as volatile as the currency used for pricing
      • Gold, Silver, et al
    • Cryptocurrencies
      • Rhymes with .com boom/bust in 1999-2000
      • Only one Amazon.com emerged
      • How many cryptocurrencies will survive?
      • Crypto bubble?
      • Tough competition
  • Wealth
    • Essentially, all legal contracts
    • Except precious metals (keep them in a safe place!)
  • Old white dudes who seem to know what they’re talking about

Assignment:

  • Prepare for Final Exam next week

Justin

Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

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