Category: fa20-busad360

Module 8: Data Science

Review:

  • Module 7
  • Grades

Presentation:

Assignment:

Final Project:

  • Advanced Retirement Simulation
    • Expand and refine your spreadsheet simulation of annual stock+bond returns to generate estimates of retirement savings.
    • Simulation Features:
      • 40-year time horizon
      • Simulation count, n=100
      • Ability to set/modify simulation parameters by changing cell values (not by editing formula)
        • initial balance
        • annual contribution
        • stock/bond % allocation
        • financial target, e.g., $1,000,000
      • Functional start button to launch automation of simulation
      • Display at end of simulation
        • probability (%) of reaching financial target
        • distribution of end balances on a histogram
        • calculation of Max, Min, Mean, Median and Standard Deviation of end balances
    • Video Presentation:
      • Each student will create a video in one of 2 formats
        • Zoom style screen recording (like my lectures), or
        • Homemade video (use your phone)
      • Provide a tour of your simulation spreadsheet
      • Demonstrate each of the “features” listed above
      • Explain what you learned about both simulation methods and retirement savings
      • Post your video on YouTube or upload and share on Google Drive (or use your preferred video platform).
      • Post a link to your video on Bb.
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Module 7: Simulation Part 2

Review:

  • Module 6

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture
  • Random Variables
    • Discrete Random Variables
      • Probability distribution table
      • Dice Simulation
    • Continuous Random Variables
      • Stock Market simulation next week

Assignment:

  • Modifications Part 1
    • Generate a 40-year simulation (instead of 30)
    • Modify the simulation to add $1,000 to the balance each year
    • Make a histogram of your ending balances
  • Modifications Part 2
    • Add a “fixed income” (bonds) component to your simulation
      • Assumptions
        • bond market returns are normally distributed
        • mean = 7.88%
        • standard deviation = 6.86%
    • Your “portfolio” should be 60% stocks and 40% bonds
    • How does the distribution of ending balances change?
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Module 6: Simulation Part 1

Review:

  • Module 5

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture
  • Probability
    • Topic worthy of its own course
  • Simulation
    • Random phenomenon
      • Individual outcomes are uncertain
      • Regular distribution of outcomes in large number of trials
    • Random number generation and stochastic processes
  • Coin Toss Simulation
  • Dice Roll Simulation

Assignment:

  • Replicate the Coin Toss simulation
    • 200 coin tosses (instead of 32)
    • reproduce the graph (showing 200 tosses)
  • Replicate the “Lucky 7” simulation
    • 100 rolls (instead of 32)
    • Experiment with different Payoff Odds values (in cell K2)
    • What payoff odds would you suggest the Casino owner use to maximize revenue?
  • Simulate Chuck-a-luck where the player rolls 3 dice
    • Here are the rules
    • Apply the following simplifying assumptions
      • If sum of 3 dice >10, player wins the “Big” (1 to 1 odds)
      • If the roll is three of a kind, player wins “Any Triple” (30 to 1 odds)
      • All other outcomes, player loses the bet
    • Will the “House” win money over time with these rules? Explain.
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Module 5: Regression Modeling Part 2

Review:

  • Module 4

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture 5.1
  • Variable Creation
    • Demonstrate with Sample Real Estate data
    • Multicollinearity
    • Interaction Variables
      • combine separate variables mathematically
      • add, multiply, etc
      • another way to avoid problems with multicollinearity
    • Dummy Variables
      • incorporate categorical variables
      • binary – value is either 1 or 0
      • if 0, then the coefficient has no effect on y-hat
      • if 1, then the coefficient is added

Assignment:

  • Multiple Regression Analysis
    • Select the worksheet corresponding to the last digit of your PID from this file: PuebloRealEstate_Exam2Data_ByPID
    • Save a copy of the data and convert to .xlsx format
    • Use Excel with the Analysis Toolpak Add-in
    • Build a regression model to estimate selling price
      • You must use 1 interaction variable
      • You must use 1 or more Dummy variables
      • Experiment with multiple combinations of variables to find the best model, maximizing and balancing R^2 and the F Statistic
    • Generate selling price forecasts for the following 4 Pueblo properties (with neighborhood location)
      • 4 bed, 3 ba, 2,931 sqft (Belmont)
      • 2 bed, 1 ba, 1,650 sqft (Central High School)
      • 3 bed, 2 ba, 1391 sqft (Northside/Avenues)
      • 5 bed, 3 ba, 3070 sqft (Regency and Meadows)
    • In Bb your assignment description you are asked to Measure Forecast Error. This is my mistake.
    • Submit your Excel spreadsheet (.xlsx) via Bb
    • Due Tue (9/29) at 11:59pm
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Module 4: Regression Modeling Part 1

Review:

  • Housekeeping
    • Discussion Boards
    • Grading
    • Uploading Spreadsheets in Bb
  • Time Series Analysis

Presentation:

Assignment:

  • Produce a model to estimate MLB winning percentage
    • Use 2013 MLB Team statistics
    • Test all variables and select the best combination
    • Produce a Final Model, aiming to maximize R^2 and F-Statistic
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Module 2: Data Visualization

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Module 1: Intro to Data Analysis with Spreadsheets

Week 1 Student to-do list:

  • Watch the Module 1 Video Lecture
  • Bookmark this course page – I will post content here for each module.
  • See Syllabus in Bb
    • You don’t need to buy a textbook
  • Prepare to use both Google Sheets and Microsoft Excel extensively.
  • Sign up for an account in my DataCamp.com classroom
    • Use your csupueblo.edu email address.
    • Your account is free – don’t pay for premium access
    • If you have trouble, email me for assistance
  • Complete these two DataCamp courses for Assignment 1, due Sunday
    • Introduction to Spreadsheets
    • Data Analysis in Spreadsheets
    • Even if you’re already good with spreadsheets, you’ll still learn something from these courses.
    • Sometimes the Exercises are tedious and won’t give you credit even if you enter the correct answer. Don’t get frustrated, just move on and don’t worry too much about XP (points awarded).
    • Upload your Certificates of Completion in Bb to complete the assignment.
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