Module 6: Simulation Part 1
September 28, 2020
Review:
- Module 5
Presentation:
- Video Lecture
- Probability
- Topic worthy of its own course
- Simulation
- Random phenomenon
- Individual outcomes are uncertain
- Regular distribution of outcomes in large number of trials
- Random number generation and stochastic processes
- Random phenomenon
- Coin Toss Simulation
- Demonstrate Coin Toss Simulation in Sheets
- Dice Roll Simulation
- Demonstrate Simulation of rolling a pair dice in Sheets
- Lucky 7 game
- Roll a 7, win bet
- Roll anything else (other than a 7), lose bet
Assignment:
- Replicate the Coin Toss simulation
- 200 coin tosses (instead of 32)
- reproduce the graph (showing 200 tosses)
- Replicate the “Lucky 7” simulation
- 100 rolls (instead of 32)
- Experiment with different Payoff Odds values (in cell K2)
- What payoff odds would you suggest the Casino owner use to maximize revenue?
- Simulate Chuck-a-luck where the player rolls 3 dice
- Here are the rules
- Apply the following simplifying assumptions
- If sum of 3 dice >10, player wins the “Big” (1 to 1 odds)
- If the roll is three of a kind, player wins “Any Triple” (30 to 1 odds)
- All other outcomes, player loses the bet
- Will the “House” win money over time with these rules? Explain.
