Lesson 16

Wed, Nov 5

Review:

• Discuss Election Results
• http://county.pueblo.org/government/county/department/clerk-recorder/official-election-results
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Presentation:

• Analyze Election Results – Pueblo County Example
• Review survey design questions
  • Who is your audience?
  • What do you want to learn from them?

Activity:

• Write Survey Questions (rough draft)

Assignment:

• Gather election results for your assigned counties and calculate estimate accuracy – plan to submit results Monday
• Design a “live” survey using Survey Monkey
  • Sign up for an account
  • Create new survey
  • Add appropriate questions
  • Post link to survey on your blog

Reading:

• https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/survey-guidelines/
• http://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/how-to-write-survey-questions-not-do-slideshare
• http://blogs.constantcontact.com/product-blogs/surveys-and-feedback/how-to-write-survey/

Unofficial Election Results for Pueblo County

Tue, Nov 4

UPDATED: Unofficial results in the U.S. Senate race for Pueblo County

• Cory Gardner – 25,781 (46.52%)
• Mark Udall – 25,693 (46.37%)
• Other – 3,940 (7.11%)
• Total – 55,414 (100%)

Lesson 15

Mon, Nov 3

Review:

• Submit Election Forecasts
• http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-colorado-senate-gardner-vs-udall
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
• http://elections.nytimes.com/2014/colorado-elections
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014#colorado

Presentation:

• Sampling, Surveying, Polling
• Only 1 reason for sampling – save time/money

Activity:

• Demonstrate on-line survey creation
  • Google Consumer Surveys
  • Survey Monkey

Assignment:

• Design a survey – begin by answering 2 questions for next time
  • Who is your audience?
  • What do you want to learn from them?

Reading:

• http://oqi.wisc.edu/resourcelibrary/uploads/resources/Survey_Guide.pdf
• https://www.surveymonkey.com/blog/en/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Survey_Writing_Guide1.pdf
• Ch 7 p. 223-233

Lesson 14

Wed, Oct 29

Review:

• Submit Voter Turnout Estimates

Presentation:

• Election Forecasting Project: Fundamentals and Polls
• Fundamentals
  • Generic congressional ballot (R +3)
  • Congressional approval ratings (historic lows, reduces incumbent advantage)
  • Fundraising totals (Udall – $18.3 M, Gardner – $10.6 M): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2014
  • Highest office held (Udall – Senate, Gardner – House)
  • Margin of victory in most recent senate race (Udall 52%, Schaffer 43% in 2008)
  • Candidate ideology and state partisanship (Udall – liberal, Gardner – conservative, Colorado – moderate)
• Polls (most recent)
  • Rasmussen 10/23 – Gardner +6
  • YouGov 10/23 – Udall +1
  • Harstad Strategic Research – Even
  • Keating Research – Even
  • Marist College – Gardner +2
  • Quinnipiac Univ – Gardner +3

Activity:

• Estimate Pueblo County Votes by Candidate
• County Assignments: Colorado Election Project

Assignment:

• Election Forecasting Project Part 2: Estimate Votes for Udall, Gardner and Others
  • Estimate Votes by candidate
  • Provide estimates for Pueblo County as well as for assigned Counties (3 each)
  • Describe data sources and methodology
  • Bring estimates to class on Mon
  • Post estimates and description of data/methodology to blog

Reading:

• http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/
• http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/
• http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tran/politics/election-lab-2014
• http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/elections-2014-make-your-own-senate-forecast.html

Lesson 13

Mon, Oct 27

Review:

• Exam 2
• Homework 2
• Grade report

Presentation:

• Election Forecasting Project

Activity:

• Estimate Pueblo County Voter Turnout
• County Assignments: Colorado Election Project

Assignment:

• Election Forecasting Project Part 1: Estimate Voter Turnout
  • Estimate Total Voter turnout for assigned Counties (3 each)
  • Describe data sources and methodology
  • Bring estimates to class on Wed.

Reading:

• FiveThirtyEight article
• NYTimes article

Exam 2 Review

Mon, Oct 13

Review:

• Blog Grades
• Exam 2 on Wed, Oct 15

Presentation: Exam 2 Review

For Exam 2 you need to be prepared to answer questions on the following topics:

Chapter 6

• Normal Distribution
• Probability under the Normal Curve

Chapter 8

• Estimation with z-statistic
• Estimation with t-statistic
• Confidence intervals
• Finite correction factor

Chapter 9

• Hypothesis testing with z-statistic
• Hypothesis testing with t-statistic
• 1-tail and 2-tail tests
• Type I error (alpha) and Type II error (beta)

Assignment:

• Exam 2 Part 1 (Take Home Problems): busad265-exam2-part1

Reading:

• Study for Exam 

Exam 2 on Wed Oct 15

Exam 2 will be given Wed, Oct 15th. We will review all exam topics Mon, Oct 13th.

Lesson 12

Wed, Oct 8

Review:

• Hypothesis Testing using z-statistic

Presentation:

• 1-tail vs 2-tail tests
• Hypothesis Testing using t-statistic
• Type I error (alpha) vs Type II error (beta): explanatory graphic from text

Activity:

• Problem 9.11, 9.13, 9.15

Assignment:

• Problem 9.12, 9.14, 9.16 p. 319-320

Reading:

• None. Get your blog ready for grading and prepare for Exam 2 review session on Mon.

Blog Grading on October 10th

Announcement: All assignments up through Lesson 10 should be uploaded and ready to be graded by 8:00 am on Friday, October 10th. 

Lesson 11

Mon, Oct 6

Review:

• Estimation
• Confidence Intervals
• z-statistic, t-statistic

Presentation:

• Hypothesis Testing

Activity:

• Problem 9.1

Assignment:

• Problem 9.2, 9.4, 9.6, 9.8, p. 313-314

Reading:

• p. 314-319, Hypothesis Testing with the t statistic