## Lesson 3: Simple Linear Regression

Review:

- Correlation
- Scatterplot
- Manual calculation
- Spreadsheet calculation
- XL Miner ToolPak

Presentation:

- Simple Linear Regression
- Bivariate (2 variables)
- i.e., one x and one y variable
- use Beer Party data

- Demonstrate using Beer Party data
- {(20,10), (24,12), (28,20), (32,40)}
- Beer Party data in Sheets

- Manual Calculations
- Sheets Chart/Scatterplot functionality
- Sheets internal function
- XL Miner Analysis ToolPak

Activity:

- Run Simple Linear Regression on the Pueblo RE 2014 – 100 rows sample data
- Total SqFt = x/independent/explanatory variable
- Selling Price = y/dependent/response variable
- Estimate Price assuming
**SqFt (x) = 1200, 1600, 2000**

- Sheets Chart/Scatterplot functionality
- Sheets internal function
- XL Miner Analysis ToolPak
- Repeat with preferred approach for all 5 examples at statology.org/bivariate-data-real-life-examples/

Assignment:

- Forecast downstream water volume using upstream snowpack measurements
- Use Snowpack n Runoff data (1981-2017) to generate regression equation
- Source: National Water and Climate Center, USDA
**Snowpack**=**x**/independent/explanatory variable**Runoff**= the**y**/dependent/response variable

- Use your Simple Regression Model to Estimate Runoff (2018-2023)
- Prepare estimates for next class