Category: fa22-busad360

Module 8: Final Exam

Review:

  • Module 7

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture
  • Please ignore any references to the “Data Science for Business” assignment you may have seen. It’s not required.

Final Exam:

  • I will be sharing a final exam in Google Sheets format on Bb.
  • The Google Sheets file will contain materials and instructions for completing the final exam.
  • Once you have attempted all the exam questions you need to create a video presentation, as described below.
  • Video Presentation Instructions:
    • Each student will create a video in one of 2 formats
      • Zoom style screen recording (like my lectures), or
      • Homemade video (use your phone)
    • Provide a “tour” of your final exam answers with the Google Sheets file displayed.
      • Explain how you approached each question and how you arrived at each answer.
      • Be honest and direct about what you do and don’t understand.
    • Your video should be approximately 5 minutes in length.
      • Speak clearly! If I can’t follow your commentary it may negatively impact your grade.
      • Don’t rush through it. Take time to explain yourself.
      • Don’t make the video unnecessarily long but don’t worry if you go a little over.
    • Post your video on YouTube (yes, only YouTube is acceptable, to keep grading manageable).
    • Post your YouTube link in Bb.
    • Post the link only! Please do not try to actually upload the video to Bb.
More

Module 7: Simulation Part 2

Review:

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture (38 min)
  • Random Variables
    • Discrete Random Variables
      • Probability distribution table
      • Dice Simulation
    • Continuous Random Variables
      • Stock Market simulation next week

Assignment:

  • Stock Market Simulation in Sheets
    • Use Annual Stock Market Return data as a starting point
    • Assumptions
      • stock market returns are normally distributed
      • mean = 11.88%
      • standard deviation = 19.76%
  • Modifications Part 1
    • Generate a 40-year simulation (instead of 30)
    • Modify the simulation to add $1,000 to the balance each year
    • Make a histogram of your ending balances
  • Modifications Part 2
    • Add a “fixed income” (bonds) component to your simulation
    • Assumptions
      • bond market returns are normally distributed
      • mean = 7.88%
      • standard deviation = 6.86%
  • Your “portfolio” should be 60% stocks and 40% bonds
    • How does the distribution of ending balances change?
  • Submit your Sheets link or Excel file here
More

Module 6: Simulation Part 1

Review:

  • Module 5

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture
  • Probability
    • Topic worthy of its own course
  • Simulation
    • Random phenomenon
      • Individual outcomes are uncertain
      • Regular distribution of outcomes in large number of trials
    • Random number generation and stochastic processes
  • Coin Toss Simulation
  • Dice Roll Simulation

Assignment:

  • Replicate the Coin Toss simulation
    • 200 coin tosses (instead of 32)
    • reproduce the graph (showing 200 tosses)
  • Replicate the “Lucky 7” simulation
    • 100 rolls (instead of 32)
    • Experiment with different Payoff Odds values (in cell K2)
    • What payoff odds would you suggest the Casino owner use to maximize revenue?
  • Simulate Chuck-a-luck where the player rolls 3 dice
    • Here are the rules
    • Apply the following simplifying assumptions
      • If sum of 3 dice >10, player wins the “Big” (1 to 1 odds)
      • If the roll is three of a kind, player wins “Any Triple” (30 to 1 odds)
      • All other outcomes, player loses the bet
    • Will the “House” win money over time with these rules? Explain.
  • Upload to this Google Form
    • If Google Sheets, provide a Shared link
    • If MS Excel, upload your .xlsx file
More

Module 5: Regression Modeling Part 2

Review:

  • Regression Modeling Part 1
  • MLB
  • East Side Real Estate

Presentation:

  • Video Lecture
  • Variable Creation
    • Demonstrate with Sample Real Estate data
    • Multicollinearity
    • Interaction Variables
      • combine separate variables mathematically
      • add, multiply, etc
      • another way to avoid problems with multicollinearity
    • Dummy Variables
      • incorporate categorical variables
      • binary – value is either 1 or 0
      • if 0, then the coefficient has no effect on y-hat
      • if 1, then the coefficient is added

Assignment:

  • Multiple Regression Analysis
    • Select the worksheet corresponding to the last digit of your PID from this file: PuebloRealEstate_Exam2Data_ByPID
    • Save a copy of the data and convert to .xlsx format
    • Use Excel with the Analysis Toolpak Add-in
    • Build a regression model to estimate selling price
      • You must use 1 interaction variable
      • You must use 1 or more Dummy variables
      • Experiment with multiple combinations of variables to find the best model, maximizing and balancing R^2 and the F Statistic
    • Generate selling price forecasts for the following 4 Pueblo properties (with neighborhood location)
      • 4 bed, 3 ba, 2,931 sqft (Belmont)
      • 2 bed, 1 ba, 1,650 sqft (Central High School)
      • 3 bed, 2 ba, 1391 sqft (Northside/Avenues)
      • 5 bed, 3 ba, 3070 sqft (Regency and Meadows)
    • Submit your Excel spreadsheet (.xlsx) here.
More

Module 4: Regression Modeling Part 1

Review:

  • Time Series Analysis

Presentation:

Assignment:

  • Build a Regression Model to predict Real Estate prices
    1. Use East Pueblo RE Sales 2014-2016
    2. Test all variables and select the best combination
    3. Produce a Final Model, aiming to maximize R^2 and F-Statistic
  • Build a Regression Model to estimate MLB winning percentage
    • Use 2013 MLB Team statistics
    • Test all variables and select the best combination
    • Produce a Final Model, aiming to maximize R^2 and F-Statistic
  • Submit Your Assignment
    • Put your final models on two separate worksheets (maybe label one tab “Real Estate” and the other “MLB”) within *one* single Microsoft Excel file (.xlsx).
    • Bb is sort of a disaster when it comes to Excel uploads so please submit using the link below.
    • Upload your Excel file here
More

Module 3: Time Series Analysis

  • Assignment instructions (same as in Bb):
    • Download interest rate spread data (same as Yield Curve link above) from the St. Louis Fed
    • Fit a 2nd, 3rd and 4th order Polynomial curve (n=3).
      • Record the polynomial Equations (e.g., y = 0.04*x^2 + 0.22*x + .45)     
      • Record the R-Squared values (e.g., R^2 = 0.84)
    • Forecast interest spreads
      • Use the best fitting curve (and its equation)
      • Generate forecasts for the next 5 time periods (n=5 forecasts)
    • “Share” your Google Sheets file with “Anyone” and copy/paste the link into Blackboard.
More

Module 2: Data Visualization

  • Watch this Module Introduction Video first!
  • Please note: I’ve changed this module
    • You’ll be working with Colorado’s Economic Regions instead of Congressional Districts.
    • This should make life easier for you because the Congressional Districts are tricky.
    • I haven’t changed the video so I still refer to Congressional Districts.
    • Whenever you hear Congressional Districts think Economic Regions instead.
    • If you have questions about this ask on the discussion board in Bb!
More

Module 1: Intro to Data Analysis with Spreadsheets

In week 1 you will begin learning to analyze data in spreadsheets.

Assignment 1:

  • Join DataCamp
  • Videos – where I walk through the DataCamp exercises (optional)
  • Troubleshooting
    • DataCamp is a bit temperamental. Here are a few tips.
    • Email account
      • The invitation link above (and here) is setup for the csupueblo.edu domain.
      • If you sign up using gmail or other personal email you won’t be connected to my classroom automatically.
      • The main benefit of having a classroom for you to connect to is free access to all premium content. Here are your options (unless you want to pay):
        • Use your pack.csupueblo.edu email when you create a new account. Use the email with your NAME not the one with your C123… number.
        • If you want to sign up with a different email, send me your preferred email address and I will create a separate invitation. 
    • Browser Refresh – duct tape for the internet
      • If you signed up successfully with your pack.csupueblo.edu email but you are still being prompted to pay for premium content try these steps.
        1. Kill your browser and restart.
        2. Use the invitation link to my classroom.
        3. Logout and log back in.
      • These steps typically resolve 90% of issues. If it doesn’t resolve your problem try the steps one more time and then email me.
      • During the courses DataCamp occasionally gets confused. Just refresh your browser and retry.
      • These issues can be annoying but when you’re thinking about complaining just remember that DataCamp makes all their premium content available to us at no cost. Also, I haven’t found anything better for teaching data analysis skills.
More

Introduction to Advanced Statistics

Introduction to Advanced Statistics

This course will consist of eight one-week modules, each module beginning Monday and ending the following Sunday. Each week you are responsible for contributing to Discussion forums in Bb and for completing an Assignment. I will provide descriptions and resources here each week and I will make an Announcement on Bb each time a new module post appears. Typically, I will also post one or more video lectures each week.

All assignments are due by 11:59pm on Sunday each week!

Here’s an introductory video.

Here’s a link to the course syllabus and below I’m providing some general guidelines for the asynchronous online format.

No Textbook! Don’t buy one. I use my own material.

Discussions:

  • Each week you will earn up to 20 points by contributing to the discussion forums on Bb.
  • Ask a question or share something you learned that saved you time or helped you understand the material. The idea is to be curious and promote understanding.
  • Don’t regurgitate or summarize the material unless it’s part of a question or helpful insight.
  • Submit comments or questions during the week, no later than Friday. If you wait until Sat or Sun your input won’t help you or anyone else. (That said, better late than never for scoring).
  • Don’t login only once a week, make a few comments and logout 10 min later. I’ll notice if you’re doing the bare minimum.
  • Don’t skip Discussion all together. If I see nothing, you’ll get 0/20.

Assignments:

  • Each week you will earn up to 100 points by completing an assignment.
  • I will provide instructions. Please follow the instructions.
    • If I ask you to submit something via Bb or via Google Forms don’t email it instead. Grading is time consuming and handling special cases wastes my time.
    • Pay attention to format. If I ask you to submit an .xlsx file, don’t send a .pdf or other format.
  • Make it easy for me to identify where you are answering a question. If I can’t find it you may not get credit.
  • If you’re not sure what to do to complete an assignment, post a question on the discussion board! That’s the whole idea! Or you can send me an email if you prefer not to broadcast. Of course, this requires that you think about the assignment before 10p on Sunday.
More