Last Chance

I plan to be in my office 12pm to 4pm this Friday (12/11). This will be your last chance to present your analysis of snowfall data or to submit any late work. If I didn’t talk to you about your grade in my office last week or this week you should assume you will FAIL the class unless I hear from you. I hate giving Fs so please Email or Tweet if you have any doubt.

Textbook for Advanced Statistics

If you are taking my Advanced Statistics course in Spring we will use this textbook:

Business Statistics: For Contemporary Decision Making (7th Edition) by Ken Black. 

Amazon has used copies selling for ~ $20-30. You can also rent for ~ $15. http://www.amazon.com/Business-Statistics-Contemporary-Decision-Making/dp/0470931469/

If you have money to burn, you can buy from your friendly University bookstore for $265 (new) or $199 (used).

Exam 3 Review

Mon, Nov 30

Review:

• Blog Grading
• Snowfall Estimates
• Temperature change analysis
• Student Presentation Sign Up

Presentation:

• Review for Exam 3 (in-class) on Wed, Dec 2
• Module 1
• • Types of Data
  • Types of Analysis
  • Stemplots
  • Histograms
  • Mean
  • Median
  • Mode
  • Percentiles
  • Quartiles
  • Interquartile Range (IQR)
  • Box Plots
  • Variance
  • Standard Deviation
• Module 2 
  • Normal Distribution
    • Empirical Rule
    •  Z-Scores and Z-Table
  • Standard Normal Problems
    • Less Than, More Than, Between
  •  Estimation
    • Point Estimate
    • Confidence Intervals
• Module 3
  • t-distribution and t-table
  • Census
  • Sampling
  • Surveys
  • Hypothesis testing
    • Two tail
    • One tail
    • Proportions

Assignment:

• Study for Exam 3
• Work on Snowfall Estimate and temperature change analysis.
• Sign up for a Presentation Time Slot

Blog Grading

If you are concerned about your blog grades or if you want a particular blog post graded or re-graded, Lucas has been kind enough to allow me to share his contact information for more efficient communication.

[highlight color=”options: yellow, black”]You can text Lucas at (970) 556-8036.[/highlight]

Please don’t abuse this opportunity to communicate directly with Lucas.

Lesson 18: Survey Wrap-Up and Ski Resort Analytics

Wed, Nov 18

Review:

• Small Sample Inference
• Blog Grading

Presentation:

• Survey Wrap-Up – stand-alone blog post
• Snow Estimation Discussion
• Climate Change Discussion

Activity:

• Complete Teaching Evaluation

Assignment:

• Survey Report Blog Post – stand-alone write-up explaining data, methods and results
• Work on Exam 3 Take Home
• Happy Thanksgiving!

Lesson 17: Survey Inference

Mon, Nov 16

Review:

• Lesson 16
• Exam 3

Presentation:

• Survey Inference
• Small Sample Inference video

Assignment:

• Calculate Estimate with CI or run Hypothesis Test with existing survey response data
• Post to Blog

Exam 3 Part 1 (Take Home)

Use the last digit of your PID to select a Ski Resort

• 0 = Aspen
• 1 = Breckenridge
• 2 = Crested Butte
• 3 = Keystone
• 4 = Monarch
• 5 = Purgatory
• 6 = Steamboat Springs
• 7 = Telluride
• 8 = Vail
• 9 = Wolf Creek

You’ve been hired by the [PID Location] Ski Resort as a Data Analyst. The General Manager (GM) of the resort invites you to his office on your first day.

• GM: Welcome to [PID Location]!
• You: Thanks, I can’t wait to get started.
• GM: Good, I need you to estimate monthly snow fall for the upcoming ski season.
• You: Wow. I’m not sure where to start.
• GM: You can start by downloading climate data from NOAA.
• You: Anything else?
• GM: Yes, we have some Tree Huggers and Oil Executives on our Board of Directors. They’ve been arguing about Climate Change or Global Warming or whatever you want to call it. They asked me to get somebody to look at the same data type of climate data and run some tests to see if it has warmed up a lot here.
• You: Should I set up a Hypothesis Test of some sort?
• GM: Yeah, I guess so. It’s up to you.
• You: Okay, I’ll do my best. When do you want me to have this done for you?
• GM: I want you to present it to senior management on December 7th or 8th.
• You: Man, this is the coolest job ever. I love getting paid to do statistics.

Grade Report 4

Student scores through Exam 2 and Lesson 12.

Lesson 16: Hypothesis Testing for Proportions

Wed, Nov 11

Review:

• One-tailed and Two-tailed Hypothesis Testing
• Surveys

Presentation:

• Hypothesis Testing for a Proportion [printer friendly version]
• Hypothesis Test using my own Survey Data
• Do CSU-Pueblo students believe more than 50% of fellow students use marijuana on a regular basis?
  • n = 59, x-bar = 0.561, [s = 19.08], α = .05
  • Ho: p <= 0.5, Ha: p > 0.5

Activity:

• Read through Hypothesis Testing for a Proportion
• Complete the two “On Your Own” Problems at the bottom of the page

Assignment:

• Prepare a Hypothesis Test you can run using your survey response data.
  • Write a quick synopsis of the data you’re collecting and the question you want to address.
  • Identify the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis.
• Post to your blog.

Lesson 15: One-Tailed vs Two-Tailed Hypothesis Tests

Mon, Nov 9

Review:

• Hypothesis Testing

Presentation:

• 1-Tailed and 2-Tailed Tests
• Kahn Academy video
• Example Problem
  • Ho: μ = 25, Ha: μ > 25
  • x-bar = 28.2, n=64, σ = 8.4, α = 0.05

Activity:

• Problems
  • Ho: μ = 7.4, Ha: μ < 7.4, x-bar = 6.9, n=24, σ = 1.2, α = 0.05
  • Ho: μ = 1200, Ha: μ > 1200, x-bar = 1215, n=121, σ = 130, α = 0.05

Assignment:

• Gather Survey Responses through your own network of CSU-Pueblo students
• Post a Link to your Survey on Twitter
• Take as many Surveys as possible to help fellow students
• Let them know you’ve completed their survey by Retweeting