## Reading Assignment #14

**Due Thursday, October 31st**

Chapter 6, Section 6.2 Normal Distribution, p. 190-200

Also, check out this video:

Category: busad265

**Due Thursday, October 31st**

Chapter 6, Section 6.2 Normal Distribution, p. 190-200

Also, check out this video:

Probability Problem Revised

- You are playing blackjack. The dealer is using only 1 deck of freshly shuffled standard playing cards. You are the only player at the table.
- The dealer must “Stand” (not take another card) at 17 or higher (even if one card is an Ace and hitting will only improve his hand) and must “Hit” (add a card to his hand) at 16 or lower.
**In this instance, the dealer may only receive 1 hit card. This helps simplify the problem, keeping the number of possible combinations manageable.**- You were dealt a 3 and a 4 of diamonds.
- The dealer is showing a 6 of spades. The other card is face down (unknown).
- It’s your turn and you decide to “Hit” and receive another 4, this one clubs.
- You decide to “Hit” again and receive an 8 of hearts.
- Your total is now 19 (3, 4, 4, 8) and you decide to “Stand”.
- Now it’s the dealer’s turn.

**Q1. What is the probability that the dealer will bust (go over 21)?**

**Q2. What is the probability that you will win the hand?**

**Due Tuesday, October 29th**

Part 1: Solve the following probability problem.

- You are playing blackjack. The dealer is using only 1 deck of freshly shuffled standard playing cards. You are the only player at the table.
- The dealer must “Stand” (not take another card) at 17 or higher and must “Hit” (add a card to his hand) at 16 or lower.
- You were dealt a 3 and a 4 of diamonds.
- The dealer is showing a 6 of spades. The other card is face down (unknown).
- It’s your turn and you decide to “Hit” and receive another 4, this one clubs.
- You decide to “Hit” again and receive an 8 of hearts.
- Your total is now 19 (3, 4, 4, 8) and you decide to “Stand”.
- Now it’s the dealer’s turn.

**Q1. What is the probability that the dealer will bust (go over 21)?**

**Q2. What is the probability that you will win the hand?**

Show your work! I’m more interested in how you approach and work through the problem than I am about the accuracy of your answer. If you simply write down a % and turn it in, even if the % is correct, you will not receive full credit.

Part 2: Clean up your property data.

- Download this consolidated set of Pueblo Real Estate data in Excel format: PuebloRealEstateData_Final
- Check all property records with your PID.
- Are all the values accurate?
- Do you have 30 records without duplicates?
- Are they single-family properties (not vacant lots, mobile homes, apartments, etc.)?

This part of the Exercise will be graded and is worth **30 points, 1 per “good” property record**. By good I mean it’s a legitimate address in the correct (assigned) neighborhood and the values accurately reflect the data in the Pueblo County Property database. See the Property Data Entry Guidelines for details.

Probability lecture topics

1. Probability measured

P(E) = number of outcomes/occurences / total possible outcomes/occurences

0<=P(E)<=1

2. Sample Space

Total possible outcomes or occurances

3. Probability is simple division – let’s play some games

Coin flip, Dice, 1, 2, + … http://www.random.org

Yahtzee – http://www.yahtzeeonline.org/

Blackjack – http://espn.go.com/free-online-games/puzzles/_/gid/16/blackjack

4. Homework

– probability problems

– clean up real estate file

– assign reading

**Due Thursday, October 24th**

Textbook Reading: Ch 4, p 98-106

Web Resource: http://learnandteachstatistics.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/probability/

YouTube Video (Khan Academy): http://youtu.be/uzkc-qNVoOk

I worked through the 14 problems on the 2nd part of the exam using a calculator and pencil + paper. I’ve scanned in my hand written solutions.

First, calculate ∑x, ∑y, ∑x², ∑y², ∑xy and produce a scatter plot.

Next, calculate the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, identify correlation type, dependent and independent variables, calculate slope and y-intercept of the regression line and produce a linear equation.

Finally, calculate the Sum of Squares Error (SSE), Standard Error of the Estimate, Coefficient of Determination (r²), estimate property values and discuss how multiple regression might be utilized.

Here is the formula sheet that was provided, for reference.

Here are the results for Exam #2

Descriptive Statistics (zeroes excluded)

Exam2 Grades | |

Mean | 75.78 |

Standard Error | 2.37 |

Median | 79.73 |

Mode | 72.97 |

Standard Deviation | 14.97 |

Range | 52.70 |

Minimum | 47.30 |

Maximum | 100.00 |

Count | 40.00 |

Histogram

Stem and Leaf Plot

4 78

5 012289

6 2368

7 0133357999

8 11122357

9 0111334

10 00

Scatter plot comparing Exam 1 and Exam 2 scores

For Exam #2 you need to be prepared to answer questions on the following topics:

Chapter 7

- Reasons for
**sampling** - Reasons for taking a
**census** **Random sampling****Non-random sampling****Cluster sampling****Convenience sampling**

Chapter 12

**Correlation****Pearson Correlation Coefficient****Simple regression**, aka**bivariate regression****Dependent**and**independent**variables- How to interpret a scatter plot to identify and characterize correlation
**Equation**for a simple regression line**Slope**of a simple regression line**Y-Intercept**of a simple regression line**Residuals****Outliers****Sum of Squares Error**(SSE) AND Standard Error of the Estimate**Coefficient of Determination**or**r-squared**

Chapter 13

**Multiple regression**

In class on Thursday I offered two Extra Credit opportunities. I assigned them on a first-hand-in-the-air basis but it looks like a lot of students were interested. Please comment below if you would like to be considered for future “one-off” extra credit assignments. The assignment will be graded (generously – full credit unless you do a poor job) and replace your lowest exercise score.

Also, I have an opportunity available to everyone who would like to earn extra credit. This will involve downloading, learning and using free, open source statistical computing software. Here are the eligible software packages:

- PSPP – http://www.gnu.org/software/pspp/pspp.html
- SOFA – http://www.sofastatistics.com/
- Statistical Lab – http://www.statistiklabor.de/en/index.html

Here’s how it will work.

- Choose one of the software packages listed above; download and install the software.
- Become familiar with the software and use it to analyze the Pueblo Property data.
- Use the software to compute summary descriptive statistics, make graphics (e.g., histograms, scatter plots), run correlation analysis, generate bivariate and multiple regression models with the Pueblo Property data.
- Make a “Pros and Cons” list comparing your chosen software package with Excel and the Data Analysis ToolPak.
- Demonstrate what you’ve learned by having a brief meeting with me where we sit down in front of a computer for 5-10 minutes (you must provide the computer – if you don’t have a laptop check with campus IT to see if they have any equipment that can be borrowed or used for this activity) and you walk me through an analysis while I watch and ask questions.

For successful completion of the steps above, you can choose one (and only one) from the following extra credit award options.

- Drop your lowest 3 Exercise scores and replace them with 3 perfect (100%) scores.
- Drop your lowest 3 Quiz scores and replace them with 3 perfect (100%) scores.
- Add 10% to your lowest exam score.
- Add 15% to your term project grade.

BONUS: If you do all 5 steps above successfully you have the option to make a brief (5-10 min) presentation during class. Upon successful completion of the in-class presentation then, in addition to one of the selections above, I will boost your overall grade by 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% or 5% depending on the quality of the presentation.

Note that this extra credit assignment won’t be easy, requiring a fair amount of effort (although some of the effort will overlap with the term project). Furthermore, I won’t be available to provide extensive assistance. This is an independent study extra credit project. Students may work together on this but every individual will need to make their own presentation and answer questions without assistance from other students. If a student attempts to earn extra credit but hasn’t put in the effort to learn the software and analyze the property data I will probably find out during questions. In that case you may not earn any extra credit at all.