Lesson 5: Time Series Analysis

February 6, 2024

Review:

• Measurement of forecast error with MAD and RMSE
• Curvilinear Regression
• Review (Wed) and Exam 1 (Fri) next week

Presentation:

• Demonstrate 3rd and 4th order polynomial curve fitting and forecasting
  • Use daily 10-year Treasury Rates
  • Use interest rate yield spreads

Activity/Assignment:

• You will analyze the price index tracking property prices in Singapore
  • You can view and download data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QSGR628BIS
• Create a polynomial regression model
  • The model will be used to forecast the Quarterly Property Price Index
  • There should be 4 separate forecasts, one each for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 2024.
  • Use a 2nd, 3rd or 4th order polynomial
• Prepare a Spreadsheet file
  • You’ll use the spreadsheet to explain your forecast
  • Make it easy to understand
• Create a Video
  • You will provide a brief tour of your spreadsheet and explain your analysis.
  • Your video should be approximately 1-2 minutes in length. It’s okay if it’s a little longer or a little shorter.
  • It doesn’t need to be fancy. Just you speaking clearly and explaining your spreadsheet and your forecast.
  • You can use Zoom or some other screen recording setup OR you can simply use your phone’s video recorder.
• Submit links to your Spreadsheet and your Video
  • Upload your video to YouTube or Google Drive or some other hosting location
  • Share your Google Sheets spreadsheet
  • Be sure both are accessible (don’t make the video “Private”)
  • Due before class on Wed Feb 14