Lesson 12: Election Polling Project

October 15, 2018

Review:

Presentation:

Design of Experiments
- Explanatory variables
- Response variable
- Subjects – objects or participants in experiment
- Treatments – experimental conditions
Example
- Explanatory variables
  - Exam 1 Part 1 begin day/time
  - Hours of sleep night before exam
  - Study hours
  - Homework completion
- Response variable:
  - Exam 1 Score
- Subjects
  - Students
- Treatments
  - Open book vs Closed book
  - Written vs Multiple Choice
  - Morning vs Afternoon
Experimental Design Principles
- Comparison of Treatments
  - Placebo effect
  - Control group
- Randomize assignments
  - Bias
  - Double-blind
- Repetition
  - Limit impact of individual observations
  - Confirm hypotheses

Census and Sampling
- Census = attempt to count entire population
  - US Census every 10 years
  - Most costly non-military federal government operation (except maybe bailing out banks)
- Sample = gather info from a portion of the population
  - Sample Types
    - Voluntary response sample
      - Complete an optional survey
      - Inherent bias
      - Example: Google Survey
    - Simple random sample
      - select from a population
      - each individual has equal chance of being selected
      - Example: random selection of subset of enrolled students
    - Stratified random sample
      - divide population into groups or strata
      - random sampling, equal chance of selection within each group
      - Example: random selection within major (30% CIS, 35% Mgmt, 35% Econ)

Samples and Surveys
- Toward Statistical Inference
  - Population parameters
  - Sample statistics
  - Sampling distribution
  - Bias and Variability
    - to reduce bias, use random sampling
    - to reduce variability, use larger sample sizes (p. 215)
    - variability determines margin of error
    - see illustration on p. 218

Election Polling Project
- We will follow and attempt to forecast 2 political contests in Colorado
  - Governor
  - 3rd Congressional District
  - Significance – politics matters to businesses
- Colorado Governor
  - Candidates
    - Jared Polis (Democrat)
    - Walker Stapleton (Republican)
    - Scott Helker (Libertarian)
    - Bill Hammons (Unity)
  - Polling by Keating Research and Magellan Strategies
- 3rd Congressional District
  - Candidates
    - Scott Tipton (Republican) – Incumbent
    - Dianna Mitsch Bush (Democrat)
  - Debate at CSU-Pueblo
  - Polling – none really
    - The Big Line 2018
    - 3rd CD shifting left according to Cook Political Report
    - DMB comes out swinging in Club 20 debate

Activity:

County Assignments provided
Estimate voter turnout in your assigned County (use methods from previous lesson)
Compile basic information about your assigned county
- Population
- Registered Voters
- 2016 Election Results
- Previous Midterm Election Results (2014, 2010, 2006, 2002)

Assignment:

Design a survey for polling (both Governor and CD-03 races) in your assigned county
Read FiveThirtyEight’s forecast for Colorado’s 3rd district
Read about the Governor’s Race

Justin