Lesson 13: Samples, Surveys and Political Forecasting

October 12, 2016

Wed, Oct 12

Review:

• Census and Sampling
• Late exams and make-up corrections graded by Mon, Oct 17

Presentation:

• Samples and Surveys video
• Toward Statistical Inference
  • Population parameters
  • Sample statistics
  • Sampling distribution
  • Bias and Variability
    • to reduce bias, use random sampling
    • to reduce variability, use larger sample sizes (p. 215)
    • variability determines margin of error
    • see illustration on p. 218
  • Simulation
• The Power of Polling and Poll Aggregation in Politics
  • Nate Silver’s 2012 Political Forecasting
  • Among Election Quants Nate Silver Reigns Supreme
  • Guest Appearance on Jon Stewart’s Daily Show (after 2012 election)
  • http://fivethirtyeight.com/

Activity:

• Read and study this 2016 Presidential Election Forecast at fivethirtyeight.com then answer the following questions.
  • Check out the expected margin of victory by state
    • Compare the graphic to “stacked boxplots”
    • What similarities and differences do you observe?
  • Check out the simulation of electoral votes
    • What type of graphic is used to illustrate the simulation results?
    • How would you explain what’s going on in these graphics to a friend?
  • Check out these estimates of the popular vote
    • What type of graphic is used to illustrate the likely popular vote outcome?
    • How would you explain what’s going on in this graphic to a friend?
  • Choose 1 of 2 options:
    • Option 1: Describe what role Colorado will play in the election using data and analysis on this page.
    • Option 2: Identify at least 2 data elements/graphics or other analyses on the page you don’t understand.

Assignment:

• Read pp. 212-220, Toward Statistical Inference
• Complete Exercises 3.83, 3.84, 3.85, 3.86 and 3.87