Lesson 19: Special Election Forecasting Exercise
November 5, 2024
Review:
- Correlation vs Causation
- Schedule
- Week of Nov 11 – Review and Exam 3 (Thu Nov 14)
- Week of Nov 18 – Return Exam 3 + Portfolio check + Make Up Exam (Thu Nov 21)
- Week of Nov 25 – Thanksgiving
- Week of Dec 2 – Review for Final Exam (Tue Dec 10 at 10:30)
- What if I don’t need to take the Make Up Exam?
Activity:
- Election Forecasting
- Here’s some helpful County Level data along with your county assignments
- Vote by County
- Identify your assigned Colorado Counties (n=8 per student)
- Generate a forecast for each assigned County
- % Trump/Vance
- % Harris/Walz
- % Other
- Turnout (total votes cast for President)
- Considerations
- How has your assigned County changed since 2020?
- Has there been population growth?
- Has it become more conservative or more liberal?
- Will voter turnout increase or decrease?
- 2022 midterm election results
- Recent polling, if any.
- Submit your forecasts (on index card) – Due Today!
- Name
- List of Counties
- Forecasts for each County
Assignment:
- Collect the actual numbers for each assigned County
- Bring to class on Thursday
- We will measure forecast error on Thursday
- Forecast error will help determine your participation score for this assignment
