Lesson 8: Multiple Regression Variable Selection Procedures

September 17, 2020

Review:

• Intro to Multiple Regression
• Covid classroom policies

Presentation:

• Variable Selection Procedures
  • Variable Selection
  • Backward Elimination then Forward Selection
  • Demonstrate with East Pueblo RE Sales 2014-2016
• Modeling Objective:
  • Achieve highest R^2 possible
    • For some data this may be below 0.50
    • Don’t sacrifice too much significance for small gains in R^2
  • Achieve high F-statistic
    • Fewer variables = generally preferable (keep it simple)
    • Significance of F (p-value) should be <0.05, lower is better
    • Individual variables should have p-value < 0.05
    • Occasionally it’s appropriate to make exceptions

Assignment:

• Produce a model to estimate MLB winning percentage
  • Use 2013 MLB Team statistics
  • Produce a Final Model, aiming to maximize R^2 and F-Statistic
  • Add this model to the Lesson 7 spreadsheet
  • Name the worksheet tab “L8 MLB2013”
• Assignment 4 Submission
  • We’ll try something different, instead of Bb
  • Submit your spreadsheet here: https://forms.gle/dYghAY66WS79XHxz6
  • Due by Mon (9/21) at 11:59pm