Lesson 23: Investing in the 2020’s Global Economy

April 14, 2020

Join Zoom Meeting
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Meeting ID: 665 242 690
Password: 866258

Review:

  • Latin America Exam

Presentation:

  • All materials below from Apr 2019: http://www.justinholman.com/2019/04/23/lesson-23-investing-in-a-global-economy/
  • Outlook for the global economy
    • Bullish long-term (20+ years)
    • Bearish short-term (5-10 years)
    • Drivers of long-term growth
      • Information technologies
      • Medical technologies
      • Globally integrated markets
      • Emerging economies (India, East/Southeast Asia, Latin America)
      • Demographic trends
    • Barriers to long-term growth
    • Reprise of the Roaring 20’s ?
  • All investing is value investing (otherwise, it’s speculation)
    • Buy solid businesses at discount prices
    • Most publicly traded companies are overvalued
    • Most US real estate is selling at retail prices (very few discounts)
    • Emerging markets
    • Watch for major price reductions in healthy assets
  • Reliable vehicles for wealth accumulation
    • Rental property
    • Productive land (farms, timber, mineral rights, water rights)
    • Profitable businesses (that you own, not where you work)
    • Dividend paying stocks
    • It’s only an asset if it generates positive cash-flow
  • Future of money
    • Currencies may be a wild ride
    • Precious metals – as volatile as the currency used for pricing
      • Gold, Silver, et al
    • Cryptocurrencies
      • rhymes with .com boom/bust in 1999-2000
      • only one Amazon.com emerged
      • 1 year ago $8,850
      • Low in Dec 2018: $3,180 ( – 64.1%)
      • Yesterday close: $5,370 ( – 39.3%)
      • Tough competition
  • Wealth
    • Essentially, all legal contracts
    • Except commodities (keep them in a safe place!)

Assignment:

Justin

Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

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