Lesson 5: Time Series Forecasting

January 28, 2019

Review:

• Exploring Time Series Data
• Schedule
  • This week: Time Series Forecasting (today) and Measuring Forecast Error (Wed)
  • Next week: Review (Mon) and Exam 1 (Wed)

Presentation:

• Time series forecasting
  • with linear trend
  • with curve fitting
  • demonstrate with a commodity
    • https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/32217
  • download data
  • calculate moving average
  • insert chart (line or scatter)
  • fit Trendline
  • label and copy linear or polynomial equation
  • use to forecast time period n+1

Activity:

• Forecast closing WTI Oil Price for Tue Jan 29
  • Data: WTI Oil – 6mo Daily
  • Model 1: Linear
  • Model 2: Polynomial
• Forecast closing S&P500 Price for Tue Jan 29
  • Data: S&P 500 6mo Daily
  • Model 1: Linear
  • Model 2: Polynomial