Lesson 20: Political Polling and Data Visualization
November 27, 2017
Review:
- Exam 3 Results
- HW and Overall grades on Wed
- Review for Final Exam on Wed
- Final Exam dates and times
- Sec 1: Thu @ 10:30 am
- Sec 2: Wed @ 1:00 pm
Presentation:
- Exam 3 Solutions
- Election commentary
- Voter behavior is dynamic, things can change quickly
- Polls overestimate 3rd Party candidates
- Trend may be more valuable
- Visualization helps comprehension, see Virginia Results
- 2016 polls and forecasts
- Results were within margins of error
- FiveThirtyEight 2016 Election Forecast (final)
- How Much the Polls Missed in Every State
- Colorado forecast vs result
- National forecast vs result
Assignment:
- Alabama Senate Election [Optional Assignment]
- Prepare 1-page election forecast
- Due in class on Wed, Nov 29
- Earn up to 50% of points lost on Exam 3 (note emphasis on “up to”)
