Lesson 19: Review of Election Results and Political Statistics

November 8, 2017

Review:

  • Virginia Election Confidence Intervals
  • My mistake (Sec 1 only): two approaches to confidence interval calculations
  • Slack storage limit exceeded
  • Next week
    • Review on Mon
    • Exam 3 on Wed

Presentation:

  • Virginia Election Results: NY Times
    • Urban-Rural divide
    • Results vs 2016
    • Visualizations
  • How accurate were the polls? Real Clear Politics
    • Sources of inaccuracy?
      • Voter behavior
      • Sampling error
      • Survey design
  • How did voter turnout compare to previous years?

Assignment:

  • Write a 1-2 page paper describing your effort to forecast the Virginia election and comparing your prediction with the actual outcome. What did you learn about statistics, politics, polling? Paper is due in class on Thu, Nov 15. Bring a hard copy to submit along with Exam 3. The paper will count toward your Exam 3 grade.

Justin

Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

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