Lesson 18: Significance Testing
October 31, 2016
Mon, Oct 31
Review:
- Inference for Proportions
- Voter estimation assignment – due in 1 week
Presentation:
- Test of Statistical Significance
- Hypothesis Testing
- Null hypothesis, Ho (p. 375)
- Alternative hypothesis, Ha (p. 375)
- P-value (p. 377)
- z-test for population mean (p. 383)
- α = 0.05 (same as 95% confidence)
- Example Problem 6.15 (p. 383-384)
- Ho: μ = 168, Ha: μ ≠ 168
- x-bar = 173.7, n=71, σ = 27, α = 0.05
- Tests of Significance Video
- Example Problem 6.16 (p. 385)
- Ho: μ = 450, Ha: μ ≠ 450
- x-bar = 461, n=500, σ = 100, α = 0.05
Activity:
- Problems
- Ho: μ = 25, Ha: μ ≠ 25, x-bar = 28.2, n=64, σ = 8.4, α = 0.05
- Ho: μ = 7.4, Ha: μ ≠ 7.4, x-bar = 6.9, n=24, σ = 1.2, α = 0.05
- Ho: μ = 1200, Ha: μ ≠ 1200, x-bar = 1215, n=121, σ = 100, α = 0.05
Assignment:
- Read pp. 372-386, Tests of Significance
- Voter estimation exercise – Due in class on Monday Nov 7
- Estimate total number of votes cast in Pueblo County
- For President of the United States
- For US Senate (Bennet vs Glenn)
- For US Representative to Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District (Tipton vs Schwartz)
- Estimate % votes cast in Pueblo County
- For Hillary Clinton
- For Donald Trump
- For Bennet
- For Glenn
- For Tipton
- For Schwartz
- For (vote Yes) Proposition 200
- Explain your methodology
- Hint: pueblovotes.com
- Estimate total number of votes cast in Pueblo County
