Lesson 7: Forecast Error
September 29, 2015
Wed, Sep 30
Review:
Presentation:
- Forecast Error
- MAD – mean absolute deviation
- MSE – mean square error
Activity:
Time Period | Acres Harvested |
1 | 140.0 |
2 | 141.7 |
3 | 134.6 |
4 | 131.7 |
5 | 131.9 |
6 | 134.3 |
7 | 135.2 |
8 | 131.0 |
- Use the data above to complete the following
- Create a linear trend model
- Generate forecasts for Time Periods 9, 10 and 11 (3 separate forecasts)
- Calculate forecast error using MAD and MSE assuming the following “actual” amounts
- Time Period 9: 120.6
- Time Period 10: 115.2
- Time Period 11: 114.5
Assignment:
- Repeat the activity above in Sheets or Excel using a Moving Average and a Polynomial curve fit.
- Rank the models in terms of forecast accuracy.
- Create a graphic to summarize your findings.
1 Comment
[…] Measuring Forecast Error […]