March Madness Model Challenge

March 18, 2014

The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament begins this week. Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight.com have built a predictive model to forecast each game and round in the tournament.

In class today we will create a master data file (MarchMadness) for analysis and then, for Thursday, each student will build a multivariate model that attempts to replicate the FiveThirtyEight predictions. Students may work together but each student must build their own model and produce their own report with 3 elements:

  1. Regression equation
  2. Regression model output (from Excel or PSPP)
  3. Brief written summary of results discussing the accuracy and significance of the model

The report should be no more than 2 pages. Grading for this assignment will be on a 100 point scale and will contribute to the Exam portion of your grade.

Justin

Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

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