Blogging Elsewhere — Estimating Category Market Demand in the Automotive Aftermarket
September 6, 2012
Recently I published an article on the Aftermarket Analytics company blog, on how we estimate market demand. Check out the excerpt below, and click here to read the full post!
“Until recently the Automotive Aftermarket was provided data from key channel distributors indicating monthly sales activity and market share for various vehicle part categories. At the beginning of 2012 the consortium of companies that provided these data collapsed. Since then, parts suppliers and others in the Aftermarket have been searching for a new source of data to fill the void and this very issue is being discussed by industry representatives at the AAIA Fall Leadership Days conference in San Francisco this week.
In this post I propose a methodology for estimating market size and discuss how this estimate of total demand can form the basis for replacing, and perhaps improving upon, the market data previously provided by NPD.
The two key elements in producing category market size estimates are (1) vehicle registration data (referred to typically as VIO, i.e., vehicles in operation) and (2) Replacement Rates.
VIO data is available at various levels of geography (US, State, County, ZIP, Censust tract, and block group) and provided by Experian and Polk. This data is expensive but easy to acquire and utilize.”