“Until recently the Automotive Aftermarket was provided data from key channel distributors indicating monthly sales activity and market share for various vehicle part categories. At the beginning of 2012 the consortium of companies that provided these data collapsed. Since then, parts suppliers and others in the Aftermarket have been searching for a new source of data to fill the void and this very issue is being discussed by industry representatives at the AAIA Fall Leadership Days conference in San Francisco this week.
In this post I propose a methodology for estimating market size and discuss how this estimate of total demand can form the basis for replacing, and perhaps improving upon, the market data previously provided by NPD.
The two key elements in producing category market size estimates are (1) vehicle registration data (referred to typically as VIO, i.e., vehicles in operation) and (2) Replacement Rates.
VIO data is available at various levels of geography (US, State, County, ZIP, Censust tract, and block group) and provided by Experian and Polk. This data is expensive but easy to acquire and utilize.”
Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
