Lesson 6: Time Series Forecasting

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February 8, 2016 at 8:52 am  •  Posted in s16-busad360 by  •  2 Comments

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Mon, Feb 8

Review:

  • Residual Analysis and R-Squared
  • Exam 1

Presentation:

  • Forecasting Trend Line
    • Table 12.10 on p. 508
    • Problem 12.48
  • Time Series Forecasting (sample data: Crude Oil Prices)
    • Linear Trend
    • Polynomial Curve Fitting
    • Moving Average (MA)
      • Calculate and use as independent (x) variable
      • Develop Linear or Polynomial model based on MA data

Activity:

  • Complete Problems 12.49-12.50 on p. 510 (by hand)

Assignment:

  • Use Sheets and Crude Oil Price Data to Generate Forecasts (for Oct, Nov, Dec 2015). Develop 3 sets of forecasts using the 4 approaches demonstrated in class: (1) linear trend, (2) polynomial fit and (3) linear and/or polynomial fit using Moving Average data.
  • Read p. 504-509, Using Regression to Develop a Forecasting Trend Line
  • Read p. 603-606, Intro to Forecasting and Measurement of Forecast Error

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