## Exam 3 Results

Exam 3 | |

Mean | 83.5 |

Standard Error | 1.3 |

Median | 84.4 |

Mode | 93.8 |

Standard Deviation | 10.2 |

Sample Variance | 104.6 |

Kurtosis | 0.5 |

Skewness | -0.7 |

Range | 45.0 |

Minimum | 55.0 |

Maximum | 100.0 |

Sum | 5430.7 |

Count | 66.0 |

Category: Teaching

- 17 hours ago
- f18-busad265
- Justin

Exam 3 | |

Mean | 83.5 |

Standard Error | 1.3 |

Median | 84.4 |

Mode | 93.8 |

Standard Deviation | 10.2 |

Sample Variance | 104.6 |

Kurtosis | 0.5 |

Skewness | -0.7 |

Range | 45.0 |

Minimum | 55.0 |

Maximum | 100.0 |

Sum | 5430.7 |

Count | 66.0 |

- 20 hours ago
- f18-econ325
- Justin

Review:

- Taxes and Real Estate
**Assignment**:- Write a 2-page paper reviewing our guest speakers
- Gary Miller and Casey Edwards
- Joe O’Brien
- Lee Meisner
- Bob Root

- What did you enjoy?
- What did you learn?
- Who taught you the most?
- Who would you invite back?
- Due Tue Dec 4 at 10:30a

- Write a 2-page paper reviewing our guest speakers
**Final Exam on Tue Dec 4 at 10:30a**

Presentation:

- Nature of wealth
- Contracts
- Physical Assets
- Collateral
- Inflation, deflation and volatility
- Precious Metals
- Bitcoin and other Cryto-currencies
- Impact on existing monetary system

- Future of the US Dollar as the World’s “Reserve Currency”
- Fed, BoE, BoJ, ECB
- ZIRP = Zero Interest Rate Policies
- QE = Quantitative Easing (money printing)
- BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa
- Currency wars

- Advantages of Real Estate
- Physical asset
- Inflation hedge
- Opportunity in an “inefficient” market
- Enduring value
- Relatively easy to insure

- Disadvantages of Real Estate
- Vulnerable to local market deterioration
- Vulnerable to deflation
- Vulnerable to natural hazards

- 3 days ago
- f18-econ325
- Justin

Review:

- Lee Meisner on Commercial Real Estate

Presentation:

- Bob Root, CPA

- 4 days ago
- f18-busad265
- Justin

**Exam on Wed, Nov 14**

Exam 3 Topics:

- Sampling Distributions
- Central Limit Theorem
- Estimation
- Confidence Intervals = Point estimate +/- Margin of error
- t-distribution for small samples
- Inference for Proportions

- Significance Testing
- Step 1. Set up Ho and Ha
- Step 2. Calculate Z statistic
- Step 3. Calculate p-value
- Step 4. Compare p-value to alpha (0.05) and decide to Reject Ho or Fail to Reject Ho
- 1-tail vs 2-tail hypothesis testing

Assignment:

- Practice Exam: F18 BA265 Practice Exam 3

- 1 week ago
- f18-econ325
- Justin

Review:

- Election issue impacting Colorado real estate

Presentation:

- Guest speaker: Lee Meisner

- 1 week ago
- f18-busad265
- Justin

Review:

- Significance Testing
- Election Results

Presentation:

- Hypothesis testing: 1-tail vs 2-tail
- 2-Tail Tests
- Example 6.15 (p. 383-384):
- Ho: μ = 168, Ha: μ ≠ 168, x-bar = 173.7, n=71, σ = 27, α = 0.05

- Use Your Knowledge 6.43 (p. 385-386):
- Ho: μ = 25, Ha: μ ≠ 25, x-bar = 27, n=25, σ = 5, α = 0.05

- Example 6.15 (p. 383-384):
- Compare >, < and ≠
- Z = -1.73
- What is the p-value for
- Ha: μ > μo [use 1 – P(Z)]
- Ha: μ < μo [use P(Z)]
- Ha: μ ≠ μo [multiply by 2]

Activity:

Determine whether it’s a 1-sided or 2-sided hypothesis test and solve. Report p-values and determine if you can reject or must fail to reject the null hypothesis.

- A test of the null hypothesis Ho: μ = μo yields test statistic z = 1.34.
- What is the P-value if the alternative is Ha: μ > μo
- What is the P-value if the alternative is Ha: μ < μo
- What is the P-value if the alternative is Ha: μ ≠ μo

- The college bookstore tells students the average textbook price is $52 with a standard deviation of $4.50. A group of students thinks the average price is higher. In order to test the bookstore’s claim, the students select a random sample of size 100 and find a sample mean price of $52.80. Perform a hypothesis test to determine if the price difference is significantly higher for α = 0.05.
- A certain chemical pollutant in the Arkansas River has been constant for several years with mean μ = 34 ppm (parts per million) and standard deviation σ = 8 ppm. A group of factory representatives whose companies discharge liquids into the river is now claiming they have lowered the average with improved filtration devices. A group of environmentalists will test to see if this is true. Assume their sample of size 50 gives a mean of 32.5 ppm. Perform a hypothesis test to determine if the pollution levels are significantly lower for α = 0.05.
- A manufacturing process produces ball bearings with diameters that have a normal distribution with mean, μ = 0.50 centimeters and known standard deviation, σ = .04 centimeters. Ball bearings with diameters that are too small or too large are problematic.
- Assume a random sample n=25 with a sample mean diameter = 0.51 cm. Perform a hypothesis test at α = 0.05.
- Assume a random sample n=25 with a sample mean diameter = 0.48 cm. Perform a hypothesis test at α = 0.05.

- 1 week ago
- f18-econ325
- Justin

Review:

- Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions
- Joe O’Brien
- Thursday: Lee Meisner

Presentation:

- Energy Policy on the Ballot: Proposition 112
- Private Property on the Ballot: Amendment 74
- Discussion

- 2 weeks ago
- f18-busad265
- Justin

Review:

- Estimation with Confidence Intervals
- Small Sample Estimation
- Inference for Proportions
- Polling
**Exam 3 on Wed, Nov 14**

Presentation:

**Significance Testing**- aka Hypothesis Testing
- Purpose: to evaluate data for evidence of significant agreement or disagreement

**Significance testing is like paternity testing.**- When you check father-child DNA for a match you can prove one person is or is not the father.
- The same test does not prove another person is the father.
- You’re evaluating only one possibility at a time.

- Significance Testing video

**Step 1.**Setup the null hypothesis (Ho) and alternate hypothesis (Ha)**Step 2.**Calculate the appropriate test statistic**Step 3.**Find the P-value (probability of obtaining result by chance)**Step 4.**Interpret results, compare P-value to α = 0.05 ; if P-value < 0.05, “Reject Ho” else “Fail to Reject Ho”

**Example A**:**Do Math SAT scores improve significantly with coaching?**- National Math SAT scores are normally distributed with mean score = 505 and std. dev = 62
- Sampled 1,000 students who received coaching
- Sample mean score was 509
- Are these results significantly better than the national average?
**Step 1**: Setup the hypothesis test

**μ = 505, σ = 62**

**x̅ = 509, n = 1,000**

**Ho: μ = 505**

**Ha: μ > 505****Step 2**: Calculate the appropriate test statistic**Z-test =****(x̅ – μ)/(σ/√n)**- (509 – 505)/(62/√1000) = 4/1.96 =
**2.04**

**Step 3**: Find P-value- P = 1 – P(Z<2.04) = 1 – 0.9793 =
**0.0207**

- P = 1 – P(Z<2.04) = 1 – 0.9793 =
**Step 4**: Interpret results- 0.0207 ≅ 2.07% probability of getting this result by chance
- 0.0207 < 0.05
**Reject Ho**- Coaching seems to improve scores significantly

**Example B**:**Has a student paper been plagiarized?**- Previous student papers contain 7 unique vocabulary words on average with std dev of 2.6
- Submitted paper contains 10 unique words
- Is the submitted paper significantly different?
**Step 1**: Setup the hypothesis test**μ = 7, σ = 2.6**

**x̅ = 10**

**Ho: μ = 7**

**Ha: μ > 7**

**Step 2**: Calculate the appropriate test statistic**Z-test =****(x̅ – μ)/(σ/√n)**- (10 – 7)/2.6 =
**1.15**

**Step 3**: Find P-value- P = 1 – P(Z<1.15) = 1 – 0.8749 =
**0.1251**

- P = 1 – P(Z<1.15) = 1 – 0.8749 =
**Step 4**: Interpret results- 0.1251 ≅ 12.51% probability of getting result by chance
- 0.1251 > 0.05
**Fail to Reject Ho**- Unique vocabulary is within normal range, no evidence of plagiarism

Assignment:

**Problem 1.1.**More than 200,000 people worldwide take the GMAT examination each year as they apply for MBA programs. Their scores vary Normally with mean about**μ = 525**and standard deviation about**σ = 100**. One hundred students,**n = 100**, go through a rigorous training program designed to raise their GMAT scores. The students who go through the program have an average score of**x̅ = 541.4**. Is there evidence to suggest the training program significantly improves GMAT scores?**Problem 1.2.**A newly installed rooftop solar system has been producing energy for**n = 100**days. Average energy production is**41.8**kWh per day with a standard deviation of**13.9**kWh. The solar panel manufacturer claims the panels typically produce**40**kWh per day. Is the newly installed system producing significantly more energy than estimated by the manufacturer?

* Most example and activity problems presented above are derived from* Moore, D.S., McCabe, G.P., and Craig, B.A., 2009. Introduction to the Practice of Statistics, 6th Edition. New York: W.H. Freeman and Company. *

- 2 weeks ago
- f18-econ325
- Justin

Review:

- Demographics
- Boom Bust Cycles
- New Construction
- Guest speaker on Thursday:
- Joe O’Brien on Land Development
- Hosted by Sarah Mize

Presentation:

- https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-insights/harvey-yield-curve
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/chart?

Discussion:

- When will the next recession arrive?
- Peter Schiff (the alarmist)
- A. Gary Shilling (the realist)
- How will it impact the Pueblo real estate market?
- Could the student loan debt “bubble” implode and cause an economic crisis?

- 2 weeks ago
- f18-busad265
- Justin

**Voter Polling Assignment:**

Follow this link and find your name (listed alphabetically): Voter Polling

Rules:

- Be polite!
- Keep the call brief and to the point.
- Introduce yourself as a student at Colorado State University – Pueblo, working on a class assignment.
- Ask if they plan to vote in next week’s election. Some may have already voted by mail. [Record Yes or No in the worksheet]
- Ask who they support for US House of Representatives: Scott Tipton (Republican) or Diane Mitsch Bush (Democrat) [Record “Tipton”, “Bush” or “Other” according to their preference].
- Thank them for taking the time to answer.
- If someone becomes belligerent, apologize for disturbing them and end the call.
- If someone demands to know why they were contacted, you can provide my name and office phone: 719-549-2684.
- Please don’t fabricate voter responses. If you can’t stomach making the phone calls then just don’t do it. Fake data will poison our survey. If I suspect you “invented” the responses I will ask for calling records.
- If they feel like talking, listen and take notes. This anecdotal information might be more valuable than the simple yes/no and candidate preference data.

Here’s a simple script you can use:

**“Hello, this is Justin. I’m a student calling from Colorado State University – Pueblo, working on a class assignment. Do you plan to vote in the election next week?”**- Record response.
**“Who do you support in the race for US House of Representatives, Republican Scott Tipton or Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush?”**- Record response.
**“That’s it. Thank you for your time!”**