“Until recently the Automotive Aftermarket was provided data from key channel distributors indicating monthly sales activity and market share for various vehicle part categories. At the beginning of 2012 the consortium of companies that provided these data collapsed. Since then, parts suppliers and others in the Aftermarket have been searching for a new source of data to fill the void and this very issue is being discussed by industry representatives at the AAIA Fall Leadership Days conference in San Francisco this week.
In this post I propose a methodology for estimating market size and discuss how this estimate of total demand can form the basis for replacing, and perhaps improving upon, the market data previously provided by NPD.
The two key elements in producing category market size estimates are (1) vehicle registration data (referred to typically as VIO, i.e., vehicles in operation) and (2) Replacement Rates.
VIO data is available at various levels of geography (US, State, County, ZIP, Censust tract, and block group) and provided by Experian and Polk. This data is expensive but easy to acquire and utilize.”
It will be very similar to the talk I presented to the AASA Technology Executives Council in March, describing how demographic data can supplement vehicle registration and replacement rate data to enhance demand forecasting and inventory optimization. You can download the presentation here.
If you’re near the Detroit Metro Airport Sheraton tomorrow stop by and say hello!
It was my first presentation to a large audience and I think it went pretty well. It was certainly a great opportunity for me and I learned a lot more about the Aftermarket during the 2-day symposium. Hopefully I’ll have more chances to speak at these types of events.
Before you begin listening you might want to download my presentation so you can follow along with the graphics that I refer to during the talk.
I’d be grateful for any feedback on my presentation, the content, my delivery, etc. I know there’s plenty of room for improvement so don’t be shy about sharing constructive criticism.
I’ll be speaking at the Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium (GAAS) in Chicago this Thursday. It’s an exciting opportunity to share some of the geographic data analysis approaches we’ve (TerraSeer) been using to help manufacturers and retailers forecast demand and make inventory assortment decisions. Here’s a downloadable brochure with more information about the conference.
Hopefully this speaking engagement will lead to more opportunities to introduce geospatial analytics to the manufacturing sector and the automotive aftermarket in particular. If you happen to be in Chicago-land stop by the Hyatt Regency near O’Hare and check it out!
I will try to share some thoughts during the conference so follow me on Twitter if you’re interested.
