Justin

Justin Holman is CEO of Aftermarket Analytics, where he leads efforts to develop cutting edge sales forecasting and inventory optimization technology for the Automotive Aftermarket. Prior to joining Aftermarket Analytics, Justin managed corporate consulting for the Strategy & Analytics division at MapInfo Corporation, leading major projects for retail clients including The Home Depot, Darden Restaurants, Bridgestone-Firestone, Sainsbury’s and New York & Company. Before that, Justin served as Vice President of Software Development at LogicTools, now part of IBM's supply chain application software group. Justin holds a B.A. from Claremont McKenna College, a Ph.D. from the University of Oregon and an Executive Management certificate from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.

4 Comments

  • Brett Boston 2 months ago

    When looking to select a property for this next assignment, since we are trying to pitch this idea to investors, should we still look to find something in our area such as Pueblo, Colorado Springs, or San Diego? Or are we more open to finding properties outside of our local area? I know the stock of 10+ unit apartment complexes in Pueblo specifically are slim, especially right now. Also, does this need to be somewhat realistic for what we could possible afford or are we able to find something that may cost lets say $1 million or more after closing and renovations?

    • Justin 2 months ago

      Hi Brett,
      Good questions. First, close to home is best but you’ll have to look beyond Pueblo. Let’s say anything on the Front Range (Pueblo to Fort Collins) is fair game. Matt is welcome to anything within 2 hours drive of San Diego. If you want to go far from home then please ask for permission and have a good reason. There should be plenty to choose from in Denver metro. Second, think of this as a pitch to an investor. Your bank account balance is irrelevant. You’re looking for a great deal that will make your investor rich. Hopefully you’ll make a few bucks along the way. So, go as big as you’d like.
      Thanks for the question. Keep them coming!
      Best,
      JH

  • Justin 2 months ago

    Hi Class,
    Syed asked a good question about the valuation process for commercial multifamily. For some reason his question isn’t appearing here. In commercial real estate valuation is typically based on rental income rather than using the comparable market analysis approach. I will post material to help with valuation soon. In the meantime, you can begin working on the ROI analysis using the asking price as the default valuation. Make sense? Please post something here, anything to let me know you’re plugged in.
    Thanks,
    JH

  • Franklin Reber 1 month ago

    How is the real estate market likely to respond to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic?

    The real estate market will be affected since wages will not keep up with home prices there will be a burst bubble. The underlying market may have a greater amount of equity and less risky loans; however, as unemployment rises there is always a risk to the real estate market. The commercial market is being affected and many businesses are moving exclusively online, which will reduce the occupancy of commercial buildings and affect rent and projected revenues.

    Which real estate sectors (e.g., single family, multifamily, commercial office, commercial retail, etc.) are most vulnerable to price declines?

    The commercial real estate sectors are most vulnerable to price declines. This is due to businesses no longer being able to afford leasing office space. Revenue for commercial real estate companies will decline as occupancy rates decline in commercial real estate.

    Will single family home prices fall as sharply as they did during the 2008 Great Recession?

    It is possible that single family home prices could fall as sharply as they did during the 2008 Great Recession. The fact that interest rates are at near zero means that the only way interest rates go lower is with negative interest rates. Therefore, even if home prices do not increase, monthly payments will increase simply because the Federal Reserve must raise rates in the future. Negative interest rates are unsustainable in the long run.

    How is today’s market different from the market 12 years ago?

    The real estate market today has more equity and fewer risky loans. However, high and prolonged unemployment will erode the ability for homeowners to make payments. Even if the property has equity, missed payments will lead to foreclosures.

    Do you think that real estate valuations will have to correct once the economy enters are rising rate market again?

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