Lesson 13: Samples, Surveys and Political Forecasting

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October 12, 2016 at 10:00 am  •  Posted in f16-busad265 by  •  0 Comments

Wed, Oct 12

Review:

  • Census and Sampling
  • Late exams and make-up corrections graded by Mon, Oct 17

Presentation:

Activity:

  • Read and study this 2016 Presidential Election Forecast at fivethirtyeight.com then answer the following questions.
    • Check out the expected margin of victory by state
      • Compare the graphic to “stacked boxplots”
      • What similarities and differences do you observe?
    • Check out the simulation of electoral votes
      • What type of graphic is used to illustrate the simulation results?
      • How would you explain what’s going on in these graphics to a friend?
    • Check out these estimates of the popular vote
      • What type of graphic is used to illustrate the likely popular vote outcome?
      • How would you explain what’s going on in this graphic to a friend?
    • Choose 1 of 2 options:
      • Option 1: Describe what role Colorado will play in the election using data and analysis on this page.
      • Option 2: Identify at least 2 data elements/graphics or other analyses on the page you don’t understand.

Assignment:

  • Read pp. 212-220, Toward Statistical Inference
  • Complete Exercises 3.83, 3.84, 3.85, 3.86 and 3.87

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