Lesson 7: Forecast Error

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September 29, 2015 at 5:01 pm  •  Posted in f15-busad360 by  •  1 Comment

Wed, Sep 30

Review:

Presentation:

  • Forecast Error
    • MAD – mean absolute deviation
    • MSE – mean square error

Activity:

Time Period Acres Harvested
1 140.0
2 141.7
3 134.6
4 131.7
5 131.9
6 134.3
7 135.2
8 131.0
  • Use the data above to complete the following
    • Create a linear trend model
    • Generate forecasts for Time Periods 9, 10 and 11 (3 separate forecasts)
    • Calculate forecast error using MAD and MSE assuming the following “actual” amounts
      • Time Period 9: 120.6
      • Time Period 10: 115.2
      • Time Period 11: 114.5

Assignment:

  • Repeat the activity above in Sheets or Excel using a Moving Average and a Polynomial curve fit.
  • Rank the models in terms of forecast accuracy.
  • Create a graphic to summarize your findings.

 

 

 

 

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