Lesson 14

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October 29, 2014 at 10:58 am  •  Posted in f14-busad265 by  •  0 Comments

Wed, Oct 29

Review:

  • Submit Voter Turnout Estimates

Presentation:

  • Election Forecasting Project: Fundamentals and Polls
  • Fundamentals
    • Generic congressional ballot (R +3)
    • Congressional approval ratings (historic lows, reduces incumbent advantage)
    • Fundraising totals (Udall – $18.3 M, Gardner – $10.6 M): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=COS2&cycle=2014
    • Highest office held (Udall – Senate, Gardner – House)
    • Margin of victory in most recent senate race (Udall 52%, Schaffer 43% in 2008)
    • Candidate ideology and state partisanship (Udall – liberal, Gardner – conservative, Colorado – moderate)
  • Polls (most recent)
    • Rasmussen 10/23 – Gardner +6
    • YouGov 10/23 – Udall +1
    • Harstad Strategic Research – Even
    • Keating Research – Even
    • Marist College – Gardner +2
    • Quinnipiac Univ – Gardner +3

Activity:

Assignment:

  • Election Forecasting Project Part 2: Estimate Votes for Udall, Gardner and Others
    • Estimate Votes by candidate
    • Provide estimates for Pueblo County as well as for assigned Counties (3 each)
    • Describe data sources and methodology
    • Bring estimates to class on Mon
    • Post estimates and description of data/methodology to blog

Reading:

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